Unemployment at 6%: Not a Chance.

Written by Gary North on October 1, 2012

The Federal Reserve has adopted QE3 to get the unemployment rate down. But how long will this take? Here are the basics of employment. Every month, the working-age population grows by 100,000 people. To get the unemployment rate to 6% will take job growth of at least 250,000 a month for at least four years. […]

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Signs of a Recession Are Becoming Clearer

Written by Gary North on July 6, 2012

Two indicators of recent economic activity serve as early indicators: the pair of indexes know as the PMI (purchasing managers’ index). One is for manufacturing (13% of the economy), and the other for services (most of the economy). Both are published by the Institute of Supply Management. Both are giving bad vibrations. The less significant […]

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East Asia’s Stock Markets Are in a Panic Selloff

Written by Gary North on June 4, 2012

manufactiurtingJapan’s Topix index was back to its 1983 low (695). It was not alone. Across East Asia, stocks crashed today. Only India’s stock market was up today, just barely. Toyota fell 3.% in one day. It reported low U.S. sales. Sony fell below 1,000 yen for the first time since 1980. Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. […]

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Asia Is Now Draining the West’s Oil Fields

Written by Gary North on January 31, 2012

The Establishment media insist that peak oil theory is a myth. This is why the following chart is not mentioned in the Establishment media. It tracks oil production. It is flat. This is global annual crude oil production in millions of barrels per day. Here is the problem the West faces. We know that Asia […]

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Key Indicator Economic Indicator Points to Slowdown

Written by Gary North on December 6, 2011

The Institute for Supply Management index for the service sector fell to 52 from 52.9 in October. Economists were caught flat-footed. They had expected 54. Anything below 50 indicates economic contraction. So, the economy seems to be reversing. It is headed up at a slower rate than before. The ISM is a widely watched indicator: […]

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