I ignore the public polls. They are useless. I pay attention to the betting sites. They all say Trump will lose.
This is why I ask this: What will happen to Trump’s hard-core supporters on November 9?
The Tea Party was a big deal in 2010. It no longer is. It dissipated. It had no hard core.
Jack Kerwick has written an article that says they will not dissipate.
Do the NeverTrumpists seriously believe that Trump’s supporters will just return to business as usual in the event that Clinton becomes President? Do they think that the unprecedented number of voters who propelled Trump as far as he’s gone will forget their treachery, that they will ever again contribute a dime or a vote toward the Republican Party?
I think most of his supporters will merge back in. If they did not come in from the fringes, they will stick with the Republican Party. They voted for Romney. They voted for McCain. They are party loyalists. They don’t care who gets the nomination.
Here is his hard core.
If Trump is serious, he has a November 8 non-concession speech ready. He will have his fallback program ready. He must have a program to keep them in the political trenches. The program must provide training for local activists. The site will then pillory Hillary for four years. It will be a frontal assault on the Establishment.
I don’t think he will do any of this. I think his hard-core followers will drift away. Entropy is the universe’s default mode. It will be a huge missed opportunity.
Richard Viguerie, in 1965, built a mailing list empire from the list of Barry Goldwater’s donors. In 1980, Reagan was elected. I think Viguerie’s mailing list made this possible.
Trump can do this if he wants to . . . at some price in terms of precious time. I don’t think he wants to pay this price.
(For the rest of my article, click the link.)