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Betting on Gridlock: A Sure Thing

Written by Gary North on October 17, 2014

The Iowa Electronic Markets lets people place small bets on certain events. Because the bets cannot go over $500, the government allows this. The site is run by the University of Iowa.

I trust the judgment of the law of large numbers. So, I think this site beats the public opinion polls.

The participants have predicted a clean sweep of the House and Senate by Republicans. The voting is simply overwhelming.

Senate: Over 80% say the Republicans will win control.


House: Over 90% say the Republicans will retain control.


It’s all over but the shouting.

Two more years of gridlock!

It will be like 1947-49.  Better.  Lame duck. No change to believe in.  No hope to believe in.  Blame-shifting. Posturing. Fund-raising. Bloviating. Deficits. ISIS. Ebola. Border.

Who’s in charge here?  Boehner, McConnell, Obama.  In short, no one.

And on the horizon: Hillary. On the day she declares her candidacy, she will be asked the same question, over and over: “What would you do differently?” She has only one specific answer: “My hair.”

There are Americans who believe that politics in Washington can make a difference. For them, the night cometh.

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12 thoughts on “Betting on Gridlock: A Sure Thing

  1. Please explain the charts. Got no clue how they support the article ……….

  2. $500 limits keep people w/ the real intelligence out of the market though

  3. The charts arenot supposed to explain anything, thier rom huffpost, they only need to look pretty

  4. I'd have to guess they borrow the logic of obamanomics, the assertion that all is well is what is desired, & will be believed. Like you, I can only guess that RHhold14 are bets that Republican House will hold seats in 2014 elections, RHlose14 is bets on loss (RH -because republican outnumber democrats in the house). Similarly DS gain14 are democrat-controlled Senate will gain bets for the Jan 2013 (left side) to Sep 2014 (right side). Following that, the trending at U of Iowa is obvious. I would be curious to see what results in solid-blue states, and solid-red states, in toto would be (Iowa being a blue-leaning state, but not solid). But the dates not matching and cause for 100% spike in early March for DS hold without any collateral effect in gain/loss makes me suspect the numbers in the sample aren't very large, but I haven't been given any clue.

  5. And the more intricate and detailed they appear, the less they need to be examined by the left, right?

  6. The Senate chart essentially shows that between November 2013 and March 2014, public sentiment changed and the bettors switched from betting on the Democrats retaining a majority to the Republicans winning one. The current line is 80% or more betting on a Republican takeover. The horizontal axis represents the history, while the vertical axis represents the % for each betting position.
    The House chart shows that until July 2014, bettors thought that Republicans might hold the House, but lose seats, but now well over 90% of bettors are betting that Republicans will gain seats in the House.
    I hope that this helps.

  7. Grumpy Old Man says:

    The horizontal axis is one year till now. The vertical axis is "VALUE" as you would value a stock.

  8. So you're basically disagreeing with Dr. North's premise that the law of large numbers holds? Explain why in this specific case, it doesn't.

  9. Sharon Jeanguenat says:

    If Boehner stays as Speaker, & McConnell gets the leader of the Senate, nothing GOOD is going to come of it. Both have shown a dereliction of duty for the past 6 years. Why would anyone think they will change if they're in charge? I would like to know what dirt Obama has on them, & on John Roberts. He has been a complete failure so far.

  10. Yeah, because the rich guys/CRIMINALS like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi & Harry Reid are the "intelligent" ones. Bend over & hand your Democrat/leftist crackholes the Vaseline, brainless leftist troll slime.

    Now crawl back to daddy Soros & pick up your $20.

  11. You are using the wrong chart. D-lose means 49 or fewer democrats. It really means 51 because 2 independents caucus with the them. There is another chart rh_rs which is at 83.

  12. Those in the know who have the good polling data who can use that information to make money likely won't risk their knowledge for a piddly $500. Now, if intrade was up, and they could make thousands….you'd have a an efficient market predictor.