I trust the betting sites more than I trust public opinion polls.
On Monday, the betting sites gave an 80% chance that Scotland’s voters will vote no to separation.
The latest odds data from all the UK’s major betting companies show between 80% and 83% probability that Scotland will remain a part of the UK while between 20% to 40% suggest otherwise. For example, Ladbrokes, SkyBet and Williams Hill’s bets on ‘no to independence’ are 1/4, which gives a probability of 80%. The odds for ‘yes to independence’ are either 11/4, 7/2 or 10/3 — all between 20% and 40% for independence.
If the “yes” movement had done just one thing, it would be sure to win. It should have campaigned on a promise to take the entire Scottish oil tax revenue system and convert it into a corporation. Then each Scottish citizen would be given one share of stock.
This would have privatized the Scottish government’s oil revenues into private income.
Any owner of a share would be allowed to sell it at a market price.
Scotland’s geezers are in favor of staying in the UK by two to one. Why? They are on the government’s welfare dole: retirement pensions. They don’t want to risk a cut-off of the funds supplied by the taxpayers in England. The “yes” crowd needs younger voters to turn out. The promise of a share of oil tax revenues would get them to the polls. It would also have cut into the geezer vote. Oil revenues that you own are a lot better security than promises from British politicians.
To make this offer, the “yes” crowd would have to cut the lifeline of the Scottish welfare state. They did not have the gumption to do this. So, they are way behind in the betting odds.