We are told that there is going to be immigration reform sometime later this year. We are told that the Republican Party in Congress is ready for this. That was before Cantor had his head handed to him in the Republican primary. The issue that sank him was his commitment to amnesty. I think that message has now been sent to a lot of members of Congress. It is a new ballgame politically on amnesty.
Let’s think about amnesty. I’m not in favor of giving it, but let’s assume that it is given. Is anything likely to change? No. There are at least 12 million illegal immigrants in the country, and it may be 20 million. There is no way that the government can round up all these people and send them home under today’s non-amnesty laws. With or without amnesty, they will stay in the country. They will live in the shadows if there is no amnesty. They will not vote. But they are not going to go home in either case. This is their home. Their children, who were born in this country, will grow up and vote.
Fact: net migration from Mexico, 2007 to 2012, was zero. All the media talk about a huge influx of Mexicans is not supported by the facts. We have seen the last of the great waves of immigration. Mexico’s economy is improving. This is no flash in the pan.
If we are talking about fundamental change in the United States, amnesty is neither here nor there. What matters are comparative birthrates. Birthrates for Hispanics have dropped since 2007. This country was in replacement mode until 2008. Birthrates were about 2.1 children per woman, which is the replacement rate. In 2007, we were the only major Western industrial country that had a replacement-rate population. The recession reversed this, and it is only slowly beginning to go back up.
Most of this increase was from Hispanic birthrates. White birthrates had gone under replacement years earlier. They were down around 1.7 children per woman. So, replacement-rate demography in this country was based on the presence of Hispanics.
Nothing is going to change anything much, one way or the other. That is the basic rule of economics. Change comes at the margin. There are marginal changes, but they take years to manifest themselves.
THE WELFARE STATE
Some people think that the big problem with illegal immigrants is that they are taking advantage of the welfare rolls. I’m sure a lot of them are. Whose fault is that? It’s the fault of the Anglos, who created the welfare system. It wasn’t created by illegal Mexican immigrants. It began in the New Deal. It was promoted by graduates of the Ivy League universities. All of this was invented by educated people, and it was supported by grassroots Democrats who used the programs to get elected after 1930. The shock troops of the welfare state are not Mexicans. They are Anglos.
What is the biggest problem with illegal immigrants? Gangs. If the United States tomorrow reversed all of the drug laws, how long would the Hispanic gangs survive? Not very long. They wouldn’t be making it big on prostitution, gambling, and petty crime. They make big it on the drug trade. That’s where the billions of dollars are. The whole system of the drug cartels in Latin America relies on demand, and the demand comes from Anglos in the United States. That’s where the money is.
Take away the welfare system and break up the gangs related to the drug cartels, and the two biggest arguments against illegal immigrants disappear.
(For the rest of my article, click the link.)