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Global Non-Warming Forecast: 20 More Years of No-Change Temperatures

Posted on November 5, 2013

Ever since 1997, the earth’s average temperature has not changed. Now, a new study predicts that we will will have 17 more years of similar weather.

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The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and the Arctic Sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research.

A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.

Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases. 

Pause: How the Earth's average temperature defied scientists' predictions by remaining almost the same
Pause: How the Earth’s average temperature defied scientists’ predictions by remaining almost the same. The research comes amid mounting evidence that the computer models on which the IPCC based the gloomy forecasts of a rapidly warming planet in its latest report, published in September, are diverging widely from reality.

The graph shown above, based on a version published by Dr Ed Hawkins of Reading University on his blog, Climate Lab Book, reveals that actual temperatures are now below the predictions made by almost all the 138 models on which the IPCC relies.

The pause means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend.

According to Dr Hawkins, the divergence is now so great that the world’s climate is cooler than what the models collectively predicted with ‘five to 95 percent certainty’.

Curry and Wyatt say they have identified a climatic ‘stadium wave’ – the phenomenon known in Britain as a Mexican wave,  in which the crowd at a stadium stand and sit so that a wave seems to circle the audience.

In similar fashion, a number of cycles in the temperature of air and oceans, and the level of Arctic ice, take place across the Northern hemisphere over decades. Curry and Wyatt say there is evidence of this going back at least 300 years.

According to Curry and Wyatt, the theory may explain both the warming pause and why the computer models did not forecast it.

It also means that a large proportion of the warming that did occur in the years before the pause was due not to greenhouse gas emissions, but to the same cyclical wave.

‘The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s,’ said Wyatt. This is in sharp contrast with the IPCC’s report, which predicts warming of between 0.3 and 0.7C by 2035.

Wyatt added: ‘The stadium wave forecasts that sea ice will recover from its recent minimum.’ The record low seen in 2012, followed by the large increase in 2013, is consistent with the theory, she said.

(For the rest of the article, click the link.)

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7 thoughts on “Global Non-Warming Forecast: 20 More Years of No-Change Temperatures

  1. I like how this climate scare mongers call it a "pause". LOL! Try the word "cycle" you PhD "geniuses". The Earth will warm and cool based on natural cycles as it ALWAYS has. Why people fall for this AGW crap is beyond me. Guess they need extra drama in their life which tells me they've got WAY too much time on their hands.

  2. right on Mike. I've never bought this global warming bull and I just love it when more scientist agree with me:)

  3. Climate Change. An Ice Age is coming. What the Press, Clergy and C2CAM won't tell you is the science. http://firsttrumpetinrevelation.com/ Be a Prepper !

  4. Even the supposed "gotcha" graph show ongoing warming.

  5. Re: Gil,
    — Even the supposed "gotcha" graph show ongoing warming —

    It shows a much lower trend than what the models predicted PLUS a 17-year flat rate of increase.

  6. sthelensoregon says:

    The Earth saw a lot of warming over the 20th century.
    That doesn't happen for no reason.
    So what is the reason? Science has determined it: greenhouse gases.