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Blowback in Syria

Posted on September 10, 2013

If Obama orders a missile strike on Syria, there will be blowback. This article describes it.

Hafez, the 11-year old son of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, reportedly posted a blistering taunt of President Obama on Facebook. Despite being deliberately antagonistic, his strategic analysis of the situation is remarkably cogent and pointed (suggesting an 11-year old might not have actually written it). What hasn’t received much attention is an important analogy he makes between an American war with Syria and Israel’s 2006 Summer War against Hezbollah, which Israel lost.

Hafez is right to make this comparison. Hezbollah is viewed by much of the world as having defeated Israel simply by surviving Israel’s bombardment and limited ground offensive in Lebanon, thus bringing into question the overall legitimacy of the operation itself.

Israel used the military targeting philosophy of Effects Based Operations (EBO), which taught that striking measurable targets could accomplish strategic military victory over the minds of the enemy leadership and military. EBO was the doctrine we were employing in own war efforts at the time, and Israel had learned it from us.

Hezbollah presented a difficult problem for Israel; it had come to control the Lebanese state’s infrastructure over a long period of time, such that even though it did not formally own the state of Lebanon, it completely controlled it. Israel believed, and stated, that if it bombed Lebanon it would force the Lebanese to expel Hezbollah.

Quite the opposite happened. Israel destroyed a significant amount of Lebanese infrastructure without corresponding damage to Hezbollah. Hezbollah had planned ahead. They knew that Israel was using America’s EBO military doctrine, so they adopted the strategy of swarming, which Red Team commander Marine Gen. Paul Van Riper had employed to defeat the American military in the massive 2002 Millennium Challenge war game, the most expensive war game in U.S. history up until that time. Van Riper was so effective that he was slapped with extra rules to prevent his success as the war game cycle progressed.

Hezbollah used the same strategy by hiding in tunnels during the preparatory and supporting Israeli strikes and emerging in swarms around invading Israeli forces, mitigating their decisive potential, and then retreating to safety.

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18 thoughts on “Blowback in Syria

  1. Let's start World War III over a taunt an 11-year-old posted on FB. John Kerry's had his Colin Powell moment, lying about nonexistent WMD's, this time in Syria. Now Obama wants his George Bush moment to be a war-time president.

  2. The North strategic analysis of accidental weapon release as a by-product of cruise-missile attacks has Gone South.
    Military scientists long ago insured against accidental weapon release from enemy fire by deploylng binary agents exclusively.

  3. Napalm takes care of swarms quite nicely. The injury’s sustained discourage repeat efforts by the opposition.

  4. Seymour Kleerly says:

    Obama has been a War-Time president since day one! He want's to end them.

  5. Choke, gasp! I cant believe you said that. I'll say this, he sure has an odd way of doing that! Lets see now, did his level best to incite a race war, a class war, and now WWIII. Yep, mighty odd stradegy!

  6. Seymour Kleerly says:

    Turn off Fox News for two weeks, if you can.

  7. Yup, pain is a GREAT teacher! You spank your child for doing wrong, and they will think 2 or 3 times before doing that again (but that's now illegal according to the CPS!!! (and they are asses too)). As for Seymour Kleerly, not sure your head isn't too far up your butt to not see reality! A war time President? Really? Yes, we've 'had' Afghanistan, and he's turned that in to a quagmire for the troops. WE have taken out Osama-bin-lying (and HE took credit for the battle field ops. Don't 'dis the Boys', THEY can find you!!).

  8. Since my post was 'too long …. And also subsequently been "given" to the opposition – remember the chopper that got shot down with MANY of that teams members onboard? YOU probably think that is coincidence!!). Unfortunately Obama has never been spanked, he supports Sharia law (WHICH IS GRUESOME I MIGHT ADD – BEEN TO IRAQ, SAW THAT), but he is driving this country into those positions to satisfy what? Bueller? Bueller? That we are no longer a 1st world country? That He has driven us into bankruptcy (how many TRILLIONS?)? Under His management, the US has lost world dominance to Russia and China (along with Clinton 'giving up Crystal Ball' back then)? Read ALL sides of the argument before you post stupid stuff!!! Me thinks you are a troll in keyboard clothing!! For you Obviously have no clue into what make the world tick.

  9. Joe Notarangelo says:

    Thats right, go back in your bubble and have a good ole liberal party with your make-believe world. Don't face the truth, it might make you sad.

  10. Seymour Kleerly says:

    How can Obama who INHERITED two major "hot" wars not be called a "war time president?

  11. Lee Baldwin says:

    what, and watch the LIES CNN reports? -come on! grow up and become an adult. Your saviour has mucked things up badly and your vote was a huge mistake. ~GOD Bless America!

  12. Virgil_Hilts says:

    Cannister, too.

  13. Seymour Kleerly says:

    What lies on CNN?

  14. peter guild says:

    The lies CNN tells every day. Peter Guild, Quincy, MA.

  15. retired captain says:

    The most busted name in news
    google CNN lies about…..
    WOW up pops Boston, Syria, Zimmerman, Egypt, Turkey and so on

  16. Seymour Kleerly says:

    Truth or 100% anti-liberal information which means Propaganda. Their first LIE is "Fair and Balanced".

  17. Seymour Kleerly says:

    Oh thanks for clearing that up. What do you think of MSNBC, an actual Liberal outlet?

  18. Amen. You speak the truth. Just cannot believe that there are people in America who still support this Jackass.