I had never heard of Rodney Johnson a week ago. But then I came across an advertisement link: “Gold will fall to $750.”
I am always interested in ads. Financial ads sell either greed or fear. This was a classic fear headline. I clicked. Here is what I read.
Gold Up or Gold Down? Why The Gold Price Will Fall to $750
By Rodney Johnson, Editor of Survive & Prosper
At that point, it was time to do some research. What is Survive & Prosper? How could I find out?
I searched for “Survive & Prosper.” I got to a website: www.survive-prosper.com. I did a cut & paste. Then I went to www.Alexa.com, a website ranking service. The larger the number, the lower the ranking. My GaryNorth.com site is ranked in the high 40,000s. My Tea Party Economist site is ranked in the mid-60,000s.
Survive-Prosper.com is in the mid-400,000s.
Then I searched for “Rodney Johnson” and “Amazon.” I wanted to know if he had written a book on gold. He hadn’t. He co-authored a book (as subordinate author) on the coming crash. The main author was Harry Dent.
We all recall Harry Dent. He is better known as Harry “Dow 40,000” Dent. We read on Wikipedia:
In 2000, based on his forecast that economic growth would continue throughout the 2000s, Dent predicted that the DOW would reach 40k, a prediction which was repeated in his 2004 book. In his book, he also predicted the NASDAQ would reach 13-20k. In late 2006 he revised his forecasts to much lower levels, estimating the Dow would reach 16-18k and the NASDAQ 3-4k. In January 2006, he predicted that the DOW would reach 14-15k by the end of the year. It ended 2006 at 12,463, 11% below the lower end of his prediction. It ended 2007 at 13,264, again significantly lower than Dent’s revised prediction of 15,000 by early 2008. Since then, the Dow crossed 14,000 in late 2007 before retreating.
Dent popularized the baby boomer spending wave theory. According to him, after baby-boomers’ children leave home, they begin paying down debt and saving for retirement, which means spending less. That means the stock-market would have plateaued between 2007 and 2009, and remain basically flat through the fourth quarter of 2011.
So, he made his prediction based on demographics. A booming Dow was a sure thing. He wrote book after book on this. Demography is destiny.
He got his head handed to him in 2009. So, in 2011, he began to re-position himself. He is now Harry “The Coming Crash” Dent. He got Rodney Johnson to help him. They now run Survive-Prosper.com.
On the ad’s page, we read that Mr. Dent is Editor-in-Chief. We also read this:
Harry identifies and studies demographic, technological and consumer trends so he can accurately forecast economic changes. He regularly speaks to executives, financial advisors and investors around the world, has appeared on “Good Morning America,” PBS, CNBC and CNN/FN, has been featured in Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, Entrepreneur, Fortune, Success, U.S. News and World Report, Business Week, The Wall Street Journal, American Demographics and Omni, and is a regular guest on Fox Business’s “America’s Nightly Scorecard.” Harry has written numerous books including The Great Boom Ahead (1992) and The Great Crash Ahead (2011).
It should have added: “He is also a world-renowned expert in image re-positioning.”
We learn that Rodney Johnson is Editor. We are told this:
Rodney works closely with Harry to study how people spend money as they go through predictable stages of life, how that spending drives our economy and how readers can use this information to invest successfully in any market. Rodney began his career in financial services on Wall Street in the 1980s with Thomson McKinnon and then Prudential Securities. He started working on projects with Harry in the mid-1990s. He’s a regular guest on several radio programs and is featured on television where he discusses economic trends ranging from the price of oil to the direction of the U.S. economy.
It might have added: “He has not written a book on the gold market.”
Mr. Johnson’s ad says this.
Ultimately, the question is: what is gold worth?What should the price of gold be?
Typically, the answer is given in terms of a currency. An ounce of gold is worth so many dollars or euros. The gold spot price is delivered in dollars. But how do you know that the gold price is a true reflection of the value of the precious metal?
If price is not the indicator, I don’t know what else might be. He does not tell us.
He asks what the price will be in a year.
He tells us: “It’s not gold up all of the time. It’s not gold down all of the time.” A profound insight, and unquestionably true. But it does not answer the question: What will the price be in a year?
By the way, the ad is not dated. Ads usually aren’t. But this raises a question: “A year from when?”
(For the rest of my article, click the link.)