Birth rates are falling around the world. Japan was first. Then Europe. Then China. The U.S.A. was the hold-out. Now it has fallen below 2.1 children per woman–replacement rate.
White, college-educated American women are down to 1.6 children.
Mexican birth rates are way down. So are Mexican-American rates. Latin America is down. The immigrants kept the rate at 2.1 children. The economic crisis of 2008-2009 reversed that.
Where will workers come from to support Social Security and Medicare? They won’t be there.
Will there be a tax revolt? Of course.
Will the welfare state go belly-up? Yes.
Will economic growth slow before the welfare state goes belly-up? Yes.
Can the government do anything to reverse this? Yes. Shrink. Will this happen? Not this side of the inevitable Great Default.
What is the best long-term investment today? More children.
Second best: investment houses. It will take a generation to get to stagnant population. But the rate of population growth will slow.
Does future-orientation matter? Yes. Does a falling birth rate indicate a decline in future-orientation? Usually.