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Forecaster Predicts 100% Chance of a U.S. Recession Beginning in 2013

Written by Gary North on December 13, 2012

I don’t think there is a 100% chance of a recession next year, but I do think it will begin. Japan is in a recession. So is Western Europe. It is a stretch to think that the USA will sail through this in the black.

Germany’s economy is slowing. It has been the tide that kept the other nations afloat. Its central bank predicts a meager .4% growth for 2013.

The search for a nation to pick up the slack in demand for American exports — as a result of the recessions in the euro zone and Japan — has turned to China. Nevertheless, on Monday, China’s Customs Bureau reported that the nation’s imports rose only 2% in November, declining from a 2.4% increase in October.

Where is the Little Engine That Can?

Bernanke thinks that unemployment will remain high until mid-2015. Even then, it may still be at 6.5%. That’s high.

I suggest that any talk of continued recovery in the USA is whistling past the graveyard. But most forecasters think this nation will be immune. Japan and Europe have nothing to do with us, they imply.

This seems likely: no raises, no boom, and no reduction of the federal deficit.

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13 thoughts on “Forecaster Predicts 100% Chance of a U.S. Recession Beginning in 2013

  1. What I want to know is when we got out of the last recession?
    I think what we are headed to is a very serious depression.

  2. These fiscal forecasts remind me of when the DHS says a terror attack is "imminent". If they know with that much certainty what is going to happen and when, then they could have averted it too.

  3. Thank you! I thought we were in a recession for the last 4-6 years.

  4. Prof. Steve Hanke: There’s deficit of money in the world
    The crisis may persist for another two years, the economist says

    The price of energy will increase in the EU while it will remain lower in the USA. This is quite negative for the EU as the lower price of energy has already boosted the production in the USA, Prof. Steve Hanke explained
    Photo Emona Tsoncheva
    “Money, not the fiscal policy, is the shaping factor for economic growth,” Prof. Steve Hanke, known as the founding father of the currency board in Bulgaria, said in Sofia yesterday. He was a guest lecturer at a conference themed “Bulgaria and the World in Development” organized by the Manager magazine. In his opinion, one of the key reasons for economic stagnation is the deficit in money supply. Despite the fact that the central banks pursue the policy aimed at the increase of money volume the money doesn’t flow from banks to the real economy as it has to be recapitalized as part of the regulatory induced activity,” Prof. Hanke said. In Bulgaria this process is not felt so acutely as it is in the other states because the country has a stable banking system and the Bulgarian National Bank cannot print money making financial balloons. "Currently, Bulgaria is coping slightly better than the average for the EU,” Mr Hanke stated. In his words, the currency board is the main reason for Bulgaria’s EU accession.
    "The currency board is Bulgaria’s advantage, the Bulgarian brand, but Bulgaria will hardly make use of it unless the state successfully curbs corruption,” Mr Hanke pointed out.
    The rest of the lecturers, among them, Bulgaria’s minister of regional development and public works, Liliana Pavlova and minister of EU funds management Tomislav Donchev agreed with the Mr. Hanke”s stand.
    "The currency board should continue functioning in Bulgaria. If it is removed this will lead to a big catastrophe for Bulgaria,” Steve Hanke added.
    Regarding the end of the world crisis, Mr Hanke stated the crisis was not to end soon. In his words, it is very likely to continue for another two years.

    Martin Lekov

  5. U.S. The Plunge into the greatest depression Beginning in 2013 Just like the Fed printing money out of thin air ? Obama, Ben Bernanke,Tim Gietner, Some history? "The Mali Empire in Africa was famed throughout the old world for its large amounts of gold. Mansa Musa, ruler of the empire (1312–1337) became famous throughout the old world for his great hajj to Mecca in 1324. When he passed through Cairo in July 1324, he was reportedly accompanied by a camel train that included thousands of people and nearly a hundred camels. He gave away so much gold that it depressed the price in Egypt for over a decade.[60] A contemporary Arab historian remarked:
    Gold was at a high price in Egypt until they came in that year. The mithqal did not go below 25 dirhams and was generally above, but from that time its value fell and it cheapened in price and has remained cheap till now. The mithqal does not exceed 22 dirhams or less. This has been the state of affairs for about twelve years until this day by reason of the large amount of gold which they brought into Egypt and spent there ."

  6. The forecaster is dead wrong. There is a 0% chance of a recession STARTING in 2013. There is a 100% chance of a recession INCLUDING 2013.

  7. No chit, Sherlock! Wadda ya call the mess we've been in for the last 4 years? 10-20% real unemployment, massive reduction in household incomes. If that isn't recession/near depression what the hell is it?

  8. 2WarAbnVet says:

    I also have wondered how we could have "another" recession in the midst of a recession.

  9. bippy bellito says:

    We have a group of Amateurs or Provocateurs in charge in Washington who should all be tried for Treason. Incompetence is the kindest words that come to mind. eanwhile Obama is giving billions away to unfriendly foreign countries like Egypt and Libya in order to placate the sodomites that rule these countries. We have a Congress seriously lacking in Testicular Fortitude who has allowed this Criminal Administration to run rough shod over them. Are they all being BlackMailed by The Chicago Gang? Sure seems that way.

  10. Very sane words you spoke, Bravo! Let's face it folks, both sides are trying to lead us to the new world order, Congress is in dire straits and yes, very in decline of testicular fortitude, BUT the only "body" that can truly save America. So to them I say, "Grow some ball$ Congress!!" They better grow some big ones quickly before they lose them completely. Meantime, hang on to yours! I think that we know more of what is happening then our Congress does. I met one recently who did not even know what the new gold star on drivers licenses meant. Disgraceful is what most of them are. I have a neighbor who is X-secret service and I asked him what is the oath the secret service takes? Is it to the president first or the constitution? He fumbled through the answer but ended with, "the constitution". OK, so why is he not arrested yet?

  11. Chick Bowers says:

    You are right on ,and if the multitudes of buffoons stopped drinking the Kool Ade and start listening to both sides instead
    of the Liberal media,the might wake up.This has been a textbook case of divide and conquer,by the worst regime in our
    lifetime .Thanks,for people like yourself.

  12. ???

    We've been in a recession since Obama usurped the presidency with his fakeass birth certificate. Does Gary North actually mean a DEPRESSION to rival the 1929 epic?

  13. Wiley Coyote says:

    All I can say is it looks like "Red Dawn" to me. I have nothing else to say because I am all talked out.