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Intrade Will Elect Future Presidents

Written by Gary North on November 12, 2012

I wrote an article on Intrade’s estimates on the morning of November 6. You can read it here.

Let’s look at the Elecroal College map. Votes: Obama, 303; Romney 235.


The outcome was Obama, 332; Romney, 206. The 29 votes that Intrade expected Romney to get went to Obama.

So, Intrade was not perfect. But it was wrong only about a state that was so close that it took five days to count the votes. The margin of victory in Florida was 64,000 votes.

This pretty well buries traditional polling. It’s over, folks.

One news report says that Romney was shell-shocked on the evening of the election.

Why? Because of the polls.

They thought intensity and enthusiasm were on their side this time – poll after poll showed Republicans were more motivated to vote than Democrats – and that would translate into votes for Romney.As a result, they believed the public/media polls were skewed – they thought those polls oversampled Democrats and didn’t reflect Republican enthusiasm. They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney. That was a grave miscalculation, as they would see on election night.

Those assumptions drove their campaign strategy: their internal polling showed them leading in key states, so they decided to make a play for a broad victory: go to places like Pennsylvania while also playing it safe in the last two weeks.

Those assessments were wrong.

He was ignoring the obvious. Intrade said he was going to lose on the morning of the election. It had been saying this for a week.

Intrade is gong to affect turnout in the future. Voters don’t want to support a loser. Voting takes time. “Why waste it voting on a sure loser?” When voters figure out that the polls are wrong, that “their man” will lose, they will stay home.

He will then lose.

The “game” of national politics is going to change.

So, those of us who go to vote against all bond issues will still show up. Those of us who refuse to vote for the lesser evil will not vote for a lesser evil. But that will make no difference.

Intrade will make the difference.

Continue Reading on www.garynorth.com

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8 thoughts on “Intrade Will Elect Future Presidents

  1. How does voter fraud factor into Intrade? It is looking like here is plenty of evidence that voter fraud actually occured in at least some of the swing states – Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. My question is why isn't anyone doing anything about it?!?

  2. Exactly, that's the question on everyone's mind. Why isn't something being done about it? When 158% of voters vote for the democrat candidate there is something fishy going on. Allen West is the only one questioning it. Why didn't Romney???? Guess the dems can't win unless they cheat and nobody cares.

  3. How many ballots were reach Florida residents issued for the election?

  4. Hucklebuck says:

    This might have some credence if the general public had ever heard of Intrade, which they have not. (Even this comments device is showing it as an unrecognized term.)

  5. Uh. What voter fraud? The only voter fraud that happened was perpetrated by Republicans. It didn't even amount to much, either.

  6. Nate Silver will elect future presidents, not Intrade.

  7. Intrade and Nate Silver have the same record, except it costs intrade a whole lot less. People pay a monthly fee to wager on intrade!

  8. There are a lot of what abouts. What about only 25% of the absentee ballots for service men reaching them in time to vote? What about more people voting Democrat than were actually registered? How can anyone say there was not voter fraud in this election, just like the last one. How can you win against somebody who doesn't play by the rules?