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How Accurate Will Intrade Be? We Will Know Tomorrow.

Written by Gary North on November 6, 2012

Today is election day.

Here are Obama’s odds of being re-elected, according to the Irish betting site, Intrade. Latest figure: around 74%. This moved up late in the morning. It had been at 70% in the early morning hours.

This figure does not mean that he will win with a 74% majority. It means only that there is a 74% possibility that he will win. So, even if you were given two-to-one odds (66.6%), it would be a bad bet to pick Romney.

Obama has been the favorite ever since late January 2012.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

Here is the Electoral College map at 7:42 a.m.

Obama: 303. Romney: 235.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map

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4 thoughts on “How Accurate Will Intrade Be? We Will Know Tomorrow.

  1. Remember that Intrade is a gambling site open to anyone who is willing to put up their money. The historical accuracy of the "odds" based upon the bets placed is the reason for this site has been given any sort of credence in political punditry sites. Each party has an incentive to promote the idea that their side is winning in the polls, predicted to win, etc.

    Having said this, Intrade odds are clearly subject to manipulation by anyone willing to put up the cash, even if they know they are making bad bets, it can be the cost of doing business to buy the predicted odds. Given the BILLION dollars the Obama campaign has raised, much of it from oversees (illegally, of course), it is reasonable to assume that there is some sort of manipulation of the Intrade odds.

  2. delmar Jackson says:

    follow the money. catherine Fitts austin claims the international banksters pulled off a finacial coup of the USA and they are in charge now. If so, which candidate would be best as a puppet?
    If that is the case I think obama wins the election. and if so, it is the end of the GOP as we know it, so a small silver lining

    It is an ill wind that blows nobody good.

  3. Mike, let's pretend you are right about manipulation. Intrade is manipulated by some Obama loving overseas leftie….how many Americans do you believe know about Intrade to even be swayed by it? I am betting negligible.

    Here is what we should learn from this: individuals with their own selfish reasons and money on the line are better forecasters than organized pundits, university professors, or campaign managers.

  4. […] I wrote an article on Intrade’s estimates on the morning of November 6. You can read it here. […]