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Intrade: Obama Re-Claims Electoral Lead

Written by Gary North on October 25, 2012

The Electoral College vote has moved back to where it was on Tuesday. Obama has 277 votes. He needs 270. Romney has 261. Yesterday, Romney was ahead, 275 to 263.

Electoral College betting has become a horse race.

On head-to-head voting, Obama has moved back up to 59.6%. Here, he has not surrendered his lead.

As everyone knows, Ohio is crucial. Obama currently has Ohio.

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49 thoughts on “Intrade: Obama Re-Claims Electoral Lead

  1. I can't see why we need an Electoral College. With modern technology we can count the popular vote almost immediately. I don't trust the Electoral College.

  2. No Romney DOES NOT have 261……13 of those votes are from Toss Up States (CO & NH) so please don't assume he gets them. You are not the only one watching the Intrade site.

  3. The electoral college vote was nit a good thing when it was established and it even worse now. It can be bought and paid for and does not reflect the popular vote the majority of the time. I have no idea how it really works since I don’t see how you can have a few votes in any given state that will dictate how hundreds of thousands if actual voters want to vote. Why should the people even bother to vote when the electoral cites will win out over actual votes?? That in an of itself is just plain stupid. in my humble opinion the electoral vote should NEVER override or take the place of the popular vote. In almost every other voting situation where two people are running against each other it boils down to who gets the most votes even if just by one or two. If I were running for class president it would be counted by whobgot the most votes at the end if the day even if only a vote or two separated myself and the other person. AND THAT IS CALLED REAL VOTING!! The electoral college STINKS!! plain and simple and by no means represents the people.

  4. A BIG AMEN!

  5. And neither do I!!!

  6. And this also means that ODUMMY DOESN`T AUTOMATICALLY GET THEM EITHER.It`s common knowledge that Romney is leading in the Independents and the undecideds.You`re not the only one paying attention to the slide of your annointed bafoon obozo.

  7. With a landslide vote for Romney but electoral majority for obama then obama would win. It’s not a fair system.

  8. Do people not understand the purpose of the electoral college? It is to prevent population centers from controlling the vote. The electoral college gives small town America a voice in the election. The founding fathers wanted elections to be significant to every American. Not just the ones living in big cities.

  9. we do have a bunch of very ignorant people coming out of school.

  10. Musicman: Righto. but, obummer as before, will buy votes from the mysterious electoral college, buy votes for those in the past who have voted demoncrat early and often, AND has "seiu" rigging the voting booths themselves to alter your Republican vote. yeah, chicago thug style at work, "in the bag"…so thinks ovomit, but RIGHT (Republicans) has MIGHT, in the end. Truth, justice, the American way (like Superman, of course). End of the occupier-fraud-impostor-liar king-in-chief !

  11. If we truly left the vote up to the popular vote, big cities would rule the popular vote, like New York, LA…Chicago! Do you think that is a good idea and reflective of the majority of people? The electoral college isn’t perfect, but it gives states with small populations a say in the process.

  12. The Electoral College is a provision in the US Constitution. However, it is up to the individual States to determine how the EC members they select will cast their votes in the Presidential elections. To date, only 7 of the 50 States have rules and regulations on how their members cast their votes; of the 7, only 3 States must vote for the popular vote winner and the other 4 are governed by percentages. For example, if the State has 6 votes, the regulations may indicate that 4% of the 6 voters must vote for the popular winner in the final balloting. The remaining 43 States do not have any rules or regulations; therefore, these EC members may cast their vote as they wish–and if they don't like the popular candidate, they vote for the opposition. This has happened in 7 Presidential elections, the last was the Bush Gore Campaign. Gore won the popular vote by a landslide, but the EC gave the vote to Bush–and that was part of the reason they went to Court over that election.

  13. Addendum: So, if you want a change, you need to contact your State Legislators and get them to act on developing regulations for your respective EC members. And by the way, EC membership changes with the governors and legislative bodies that you elect….it really is a one-time-only deal.

  14. Martin Gaal says:

    with Obama having it all locked up, the wife & I will just go fishing. I thought there was hope with the tea party, but I guess not. Thanks for nothing!

  15. Thank you…they also do not understand that the State can regulate how those EC votes can be cast. 7 States do have regulations in place; only 3 must cast their vote for the popular winner in that State and the other 4 use a percentage. If they want the EC to be regulated, they have to contact their legislators.

  16. Intrade is Karl Rove's baby duck…and I don't go along with him and his old guard cronies either. Other polls have Romney far in the lead for both the general populace AND the Electoral College. I have found one source that provides unskewed polls and a better picture of the current campaigns. Last night, the polls were showing Romney taking Ohio from obama–I don't know where this latest news comes from. At any rate, I don't care for the news media polls, which are always skewed in obama' s favor or Karl Rove and his tinker toy.

  17. I don't know where this information is coming from. This morning the news had Obummer and Romney tied in Ohio.

  18. Texas Chris says:

    If the popular vote decided the election then California and New York would decide every presidential race.

    Is that what you want?

  19. hanginjudge says:

    Apparently bald faced lying to the Rip Van Winkle crowd works If this latest poll is correct.

  20. Texas Chris says:

    Electoral college gives the conservative heartland the edge over the more populated California and New York voting blocks. If Romney wins the popular, then he will win the electors.

    However, Obama would have to win in a landslide to beat Romney with the electors.

  21. Texas Chris says:


    Opposition to the EC is a direct result of poor education on political representation.

  22. Texas Chris says:

    Don't buy the hype. Romney will win by 6%, and third party candidates will see the biggest turnout since Ross Perot.

  23. This is Ezra Klein (Juorno fame) convincing a liberal buddy to place a bunch of INTRADE transactions in favor of Obama. So that headlines lean towards Obama.

  24. I think Obama loses Ohio and Pennsylvania, just minus 38 from Obama and add then to Romney that will be the score

  25. You're an idiot.

  26. You mean the ones who came out of school 40 years ago? LOL. Seems the ones who have the biggest lack of understanding of the EC system are old white men.

  27. Has anyone considered if we have a tie in Electoral votes, 269-269. It's very possible and the
    Republican controlled House would have to pick the Pres. and the Democratic Senate the Vice Pres.
    So you have it a Romney/Biden administration. OMG…..what a country

  28. I say anyone who votes for zero is unAmerican–that includes the electoral college! What are the people in this country thinking if they want a zero in office who doesn’t give a rat’s a$$ about God, our jobs, our economy, LIVES, nothing. We BUILT this country–we need to keep it and keep it out of that imposter’s hands!

  29. I agree Lou. Obama is falling apart as more and more people realize that he is NOT to be trusted and has lied to the people all along. Libya, Fast & Furious, Overseas donations, etc, etc. It is all coming back to bite him in the butt. That is why he is wanting people to vote early before they fully realize what a POS he is!

  30. Intrade dont mean squat! Obama does NOT have ohio.

  31. Intrade dont mean squat! Obama does NOT have ohio or wisconsin or michigan for that matter.

  32. adamenochnoah says:

    The electoral college is one of the safeguards built into the our system of Govt by the Founders in order to protect the smaller populated states from the larger ones. It has been changed & perverted since it's original inception, so we need to restore it as originally designed. Eliminating the electoral college system is not good with all the foreigners & uninformed voters we have today.

  33. Bob Marshall says:

    Had Obama won the 38 electoral vote in Texas that would have been huge.


  35. I guess it comes down to which party pays the biggest bribes. Florida Sec. of State Katherine Harris delivered her state to the GOP in 2001 and she got a congressional seat (2003-2007) as reward. The president of Diebold voting machines which is headquartered in Canton said he "guaranteed" Ohio would go for Bush in 2004 and — golly gee-whiz — he was right!

  36. Thanks for putting that out there Kay, lots of people do not understand the intent of the electoral college.

  37. Go to unskewedpolls.com to get the real polls

  38. If it were not for the electorial college, the big cities and large states would always control our government. God forbid !

  39. Our nation is based on the principle of Federalism. The Electoral College preserves that Federalism. The EC prevents populous states from disenfranchising voters in small states. Liberals talk about how votes are "disenfranchised", but can't see that the elimination of the Electoral College would do the very same thing. Our national election is the OPPORTUNITY for those with no name recongnition to excell with ideas and problem solving iniatitives to win. Bill Clinton DID NOT GET a majority of the popular vote (43%) yet he received 70% of the electoral votes. JFK won only 49.7% of the vote but won 56.4%. electoral. The Electoral College is the OPPORTUNITY for all in our federal Republic. It insures that the the President represent Americans in every state not just in big cities. This "change" is a danger to the individual sovereign Liberty & Freedom. It clearly favors a Collectivist Marxist ideaology of a domination, a subjugation, and a serfdom by financial enslavement to a "soviet" like collective of populous states. It welcomes a dictatorship of elite statists !!

  40. Merriel, the Electorial College was given to us by the founders to prevent mob rule. Without it state’s with large populations would be in complete control of every presidential election. State’s with sparse populations would have little impact in determining the outcome of an election.

  41. The electoral college most likely will abide by the popular vote, or it will be contested and rightfully so !

  42. Kay – I get you and unfortunately some of the folks never took a political science class. I would almost guarantee if under a popular vote system the same folks would have issues with the state to state breakdown vs the populous!

  43. Victor Barney says:

    Hate to RAIN on your Parade Tea Party and I LOVE what YOU are doing, BUT I'm sure that Obama will complete his MARXIST(ANTI-CHRIST) TAKEOVER OF OUR "REPUBLIC" THIS NOVEMBER. QUESTION: WHY WOULD OUR CIA & SECRET SERVICE ALLOW THE SON OF A MAN WHO OVERTHREW THE ONLY OTHER "REPUBLIC" IN THE WORLD, KENYA, TO DO THE SAME TO OUR REPUBLIC? Just wondering…But then it was u.s. that replaced the marxist League of Nations with the MARXIST GOVERNING Unitied Nations, wasn't it? Again, just saying, it is what it is, isn't it?

  44. I used to think the same thing. When Hillary suggested the Electoral College be dissolved, I realized that she could win with only votes from the US coasts. This would help Hillary win, of course, but would, in turn, effectively violate the voting rights of the center of the country. The founders of the country knew what they were doing.

  45. because if we didnt have the elec. college…..NY and CA would run the country. That is the short answer.

  46. AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  47. Blair Franconia, NH says:

    Not for long.

  48. Lets make this simple. Do you want only a few states to elect the president? Say California , New York, Florida, Ohio and the big population coast states. We smaller states with low population would have little impact without the electoral college.

  49. God Damn It Gary stop this bull shit. Intrade updates every 60 seconds. What gives Gary? Do you think your audience is so, so, so stupid that we cannot check Intrade ourselves? Some times Gary I wonder if you are a wolf in sheep's clothing for the Democrats, a RINO, or just a journalist into sensationalism.