Romney is decisively ahead.
This is major reversal. It happened in one day. Yesterday, he was at 261.
I place more credence on Intrade’s electoral map than any other indicator. The bettors have placed their own money on the line.
What about in straight one-on-one betting? Obama is down to 55.5%. Earlier this month, he was at 80%. His fall is accelerating this week.
What about the Senate? Will the Republicans gain a majority? The odds are against it: 24.5%.
So, there will be political gridlock for at least two years. But that was certain anyway. The Senate’s rule on cloture mandates a 60-vote majority to shut off a filibuster. Neither party will have this.
These results do not provide an explanation. They are the results of betting.