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Romney Pulls Ahead on Intrade’s Electoral Map

Written by Gary North on October 24, 2012

Romney is decisively ahead.

This is major reversal. It happened in one day. Yesterday, he was at 261.

I place more credence on Intrade’s electoral map than any other indicator. The bettors have placed their own money on the line.

What about in straight one-on-one betting? Obama is down to 55.5%. Earlier this month, he was at 80%. His fall is accelerating this week.

What about the Senate? Will the Republicans gain a majority? The odds are against it: 24.5%.

So, there will be political gridlock for at least two years. But that was certain anyway. The Senate’s rule on cloture mandates a 60-vote majority to shut off a filibuster. Neither party will have this.

These results do not provide an explanation. They are the results of betting.

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61 thoughts on “Romney Pulls Ahead on Intrade’s Electoral Map

  1. Gene Poole says:

    Great. Now we'll have a state religion with Andrew Jackson, John D. Rockefeller, and Bill Gates as saints!

  2. Judy Fornes says:

    At least we won't have Jeremiah Wright and Al Sharpton as saints…

  3. Gary where did you get those numbers? I am looking at the map on Intrade this very second and it shows:

    Obama – 259
    Romney – 257

    Neither has the magic number of 270

    Romney will need to take BOTH Ohio (18) and New Hampshire (4).

  4. Political gridlock is still better than political disaster. With Romney as president at least America has a chance…

  5. If I were President Obama, I would wish the election had been yesterday. Maybe, he could have won Ohio by a sliver and take the electoral college, despite a popular vote loss. However, the trajectory, including Ohio is going toward Romney, and he still has two weeks. The last debate will do nothing to stop the Romney momentum,

  6. Some, not all independents are waking up! The voters who are voting early are experiencing problems though. Fox news reported this morning that people are selecting Romney and the computer screen jumps up to obama. The Democrat in charge said ” oops, it’s a glitch, we will fix it”… Oh’ come on… Obama and his goons will Cheat. The obama followers with the same twisted mind set will do whatever it takes! Watch your voting very close..

  7. If you want to influence independent voters, have them watch VIRAL video
    by Trevor Loudon author of “Barack Obama and the Enemies Within”. His
    well-documented message is that for decades, the leftists have been trying
    to emasculate the US military, and now, with the distraction of a shattered
    economy, Obama is about to achieve this goal. Time is short. Loudon’s
    message must be heard. Blast this to your social media networks and ask
    them to do likewise. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jt44D6ZlFKI

  8. […] is down to 55.5%. Earlier this month, he was at 80%. His fall is accelerating this week. Read more: Tea Party Economist     […]

  9. Is it possible that the handlers of Romney and Obama have been reading Gary North and have decided to use a good portion of their billions to buy enough votes on Intrade to keep things interesting?

    If Romney wins, ya'll should buy all the products from the middle east that you want or need right away because it looks like item #1 on his agenda is to vaporize Persia and its neighbors. Too bad. Frankincense really is a miraculous tree which cannot be transplanted. It is the most powerful natural anti-inflammatory in the world. It's also an amazing anti-depressant along with about a hundred other uses. (Maybe the big pharma corporations are behind this. They want all the market share for remedies.)

    The natural beauty of the land in Persia is remarkable and the people carry pride and intelligence about their culture that cannot be found anywhere else. Would to God that Ron Paul could have opened up trade and communication with them. I will mourn for the lost possibilities of the middle east if Romney is elected.

  10. Hugo Cabret says:

    Once he clinches Pennsylvania, Comrade OweBa-Mao can start packing.

  11. Continued gridlock is better than the direction Obama is going, but it will elect Hillary in 2016.

  12. or MaObummer. The only real solution to our problems WAS Ron Paul. The good thing is that he has motivated literally 100s if not 1000s to be involved in politics at all levels. The r3VOLution Ron Paul has started is real, is growing, and is a threat to the 2 bandit parties.

  13. Geee Whiz !!

  14. Recheck your math friend.

  15. Iran is not going to be "vaporized". And I agree, the people there are not supportive of the regime, but trapped. Soon, however, they will be free of it.

  16. what do you call obama ,he went to the so called "reverend" wright's church for twenty years and of course we all know what the good reverend said about america and you are worried about a state religion with mitt romney, it will be a breath of fresh air not to have a liar and an incompetent in the whie house. amen brother.

  17. Really? You're going to base your assumptions off of something that was right *once*? LOL.

  18. i tottaly agree.

  19. Exactly. BRAVO.

  20. Waisted Time says:

    We will lose our freedom either thru big government or big business. Romney is a yes man for the neo-cons and Bammy is a yes man for the George Soros types. The people be damned. Time to move out or stand up to this crap.

  21. adamenochnoah says:

    In the state I live in, Romney has a overwhelming lead so I am able to vote my conscience without damaging his chance of being elected unless my candidate wins. With that in mind, I just cast my vote for Gary Johnson & Jim Gray, & I voted for the only 2 other Libertarians on the ticket. On all with the exception of one, I voted None of the Above for the Democrats & Republicans. The one Republican that I voted for was to replace the Democrat David Scott in the Congressional House of Representatives because I regard him as one of the most corrupt Representatives in DC, & voting Republican was the only real option to try to unseat him…

    As a former life-long Republican, I can now tell everyone that it felt really good to kick the corrupt two-party system out the door, even though I have only one vote to be counted…

  22. our voting system is very sloppy and full of fraud and you can't discount all the section 8 folks who will auto vote for Obama and there are more every day soon America will be a 3rd world country

  23. Blair Franconia, NH says:

    Romney looked more presidential in all three presidential debates than Obama. Obama looked petty and small in Monday night's
    debate. The Army, and the Marines, still use bayonets. Until there are new assault rifles, ones without bayonets, or a comprehensive peace treaty, which I'm for, there'll ALWAYS be war. It's part of human nature. We're in the Pax Atomica right now.
    This is the first time since the Pax Romana that we haven't fought a major war.

  24. Notice on the map to the right of Florida—Republican victory is 98.5% probable!
    Go Romney

  25. But Mit IS a liar, too. How else to explain all his position flip-flops over his political career? He ran to the left of Teddy Kennedy in 1994, was a pro-abort in '94 and in his 2000 governor race, now we're supposed to believe he's all-of-a-sudden pro-life? And this is only one issue!

  26. I voted early yesterday—I didn't see any turn out for obama!

  27. Yeah I voted for Perot in 1992 and later realized what a massive mistake I made, you see when you vote for some one who just can not win—you voting out of disappointment for the current president and are usually helping the wrong guy.
    My advice—don't throw your vote away regardless on who you vote for—consider the consequences of your actions.

  28. PatrickHenry says:

    I hope you feel that way if your vote puts Obama back in office. There is nothing good about treason in any manner, shape or form and Obama fits that description. A vote for someone other than Romney at this point is a vote for Obama, Islam and Shariah Law. Look at what has happened to Spain…and if we are not careful it will happen here. .You didn't kick anyone or anything out the door except the United States of America.

  29. CelticRune says:

    ….they were referring to South Carolina……………..98%

  30. So, for you, it's about feeling good? Well, Isn't that just special…

    It really is only a feel good move on your part. You aren't sending a message to anyone who matters. It is just too late at this point for making statements – that opportunity passed by much earlier this year when the major party candidates were selected. You really want to make a difference or statement? Get a libertarian and true Constitutional Originalist (very few of those in any party right now, including the Libertarian Party and the Constiution Party which together have virtually none) nominated as a candidate in either the Democratic or Republican party (good luck with the former, with even the latter being a long shot).

    It is slightly less disgusting than it might otherwise have been given that you actually did consider the impact of your vote on the final outcome. I wish the Paulbots vowing to write him in would be similarly circumspect. Even so, that fact that your perception is that your feel-good vote did anything to impact the two-party system is laughable. Your one counted vote equates to a square of bathroom tissue…

  31. Yep! Got NO PROBLEM with letting Iran have nuclear warheads, genius? Ron Paul is OUR ENEMIES FRIEND! No thanks. Glad he's off of the roster.

  32. Funny how a marine "tweeted" in after osama/bama said that and said "Yes, we STILL USE bayonets in the marines." Hmmmmmm? Just goes to show how much osama/bama DOESN'T KNOW about our own military. What a LOOOOSER!

  33. I believe the south is GONNA RISE AGAIN! Heh heh! 😀

  34. Romney is credible on the economy.
    Obama blew opportunities to better the economy.
    That is why Obama has any hope of losing.

  35. Once Romney is sworn in, the FIRST thing he should do is ARREST OSAMA/BAMA FOR FRAUD!

  36. I think Romney will win Ohio, Colorado and New Hampshire. Don't count him out in Nevada and Wisconsin.

  37. Texas Chris says:

    So our choice was Romney, war and good economy, or Obama, war and bad economy?

  38. Texas Chris says:

    Keep in mind that some states award proportionally.

  39. Texas Chris says:

    I agree.

    But I think it's been Romney's race for some time, just the polls have been slanted, sampling +7 to +10 Democrat. Now they're forced to report honestly, or be discredited.

  40. We are so close to getting Obama out of the WH.He has alot of ways to finish up screwing America if elected.Every thing he has done so far is kill jobs.Now thats thinking like a muslim.

  41. His number one priority is to vaporize Persia? Ok, wow, care to back that up? Persia… really?

  42. Really? You must be working for "the Persians"…Like when I was shopping for rugs, the lady said "these are from Persia". My husband said, "you mean IRAN don't you? It hasn't been called Persia in ages"…….Who's trying to deceive whom?

  43. Hel. The welfare bunch is even to lazy to vote!

  44. adamenochnoah says:

    The only wasted vote is when you vote for someone you know will not change the direction this country is headed…

  45. adamenochnoah says:

    My vote has nothing to do whether Romney is elected or not since Romney already has all the electoral college votes in his bag & the electoral college is what elects the president. Do you not know that?

  46. adamenochnoah says:

    LoL! As will your vote…

  47. Obama will thank you if you vote for Ron Paul.

  48. Just putting out the latest Intrade numbers showing Obama winning… darn it!!! Obama needs to go…

    Presidential Election Winner

    Barack Obama
    Today’s Change: +3.2
    Shares Traded: 2,191,363

    Mitt Romney
    Today’s Change: -3.6
    Shares Traded: 2,068,684

    100 @ $5.81
    Sell Shares
    2 @ $5.83
    Buy Shares

  49. Dr Frank Rice says:

    Yes, you are right Blair, and the Army has 273 Horse's in it Special Forces Unit, here at Ft Hood Texas we have 178 Horse's and an Army base in Virginia has 95. Talking about out of touch, Hussein Obama doesn't even know why we keep a strong Navy, or Armed Forces at all, we keep it just as President Romney stated, we did not think 9-11 was going to happen, but it did because his buddy Billary Clinton Refused to take Osama Bin Laden in 1997-98 and 99. OOOPS! That is when we lost almost three thousand people, I lost a good friend at The Pentagon and a Cousin in the South Tower!
    I have two wounds from bayonets in 1960. They still exists and are trained with them every day. GOD bless America, IN GOD WE MUST TRUST!

  50. True. But a popular vote landslide gives the winner a "mandate."

  51. Patriot: After the arrest, give him a fair trial, bathe him in pigs blood and apply the coup de grace!_

  52. Ah Baloney, I dispute the forecast in this story–I think Romney will have close to 300 electoral votes–he'll likely carry Wisconsin and I see GOP taking the Senate–they probably won't have enough to have a filibuster proof Senate but may not need one–they only needed 4 of the 23 DemocRAT Senate seats to take a majority in Senate and kick Reid to the curb. ALL YOU GARY JOHNSON DUMMIES–IT'S A FACT!! THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES RE-ELECT INCUMBENTS!! YOUR VOTE FOR JOHNSON WAS A VOTE FOR OWEbumbler, a 5% INCREASE IN YOUR INCOME TAXES IN JAN, $585 BILLION IN OTHER NEW TAXES NEXT YEAR AND PROBABLY ANOTHER $2500 INCREASE IN YOUR HEALTHCARE POLICIES. WILL YOU NEVER LEARN?? IF YOU WANT CHANGE–JOIN THE TEA PARTY IN CHANGING THE GOP–THE DemocRATS are LOST–THEY ARE OWNED BY SOROS AND MOVEON.ORG AND AFFILIATES.

  53. When was the last time any politician filibustered a bill to death? Strom Thurmond? It doesn't seem to be part of any congress critter's arsenal anymore. They all vote the same to "get along" and "make nice".

  54. You should read the autobiography of Gen. Smedley Butler, the most decorated soldier in US history. He called it "War Is A Racket". The phrase "military industrial complex" was not coined by a pot-smoking Sixties-era peacenik tripping at a love-in, but Gen. Dwight Eisenhower.

    And assuming you really are a vet, you should frame Heinz Kissinger's quote about soldiers just being dumb animals whose only purpose is to advance the foreign policy agendas of their masters.

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