Intrade is a betting site located in Ireland. It establishes odds based on actual bets of real money. The odds are not rigged.
In 2008, on the morning of the election, Intrade’s map of the vote in the Electoral College was correct in 48 out of 50 states. The two that it was wrong about offset each other. The map was accurate within one electoral vote. No poll was anywhere near this accurate.
On the morning of October 22, here is the map.
It is close. A loss of 8 votes by Obama will elect Romney.
The betting on Obama’s victory is at 61.7%. It was as high as 79% before the first debate. They fell below 60, then recovered, then fell.
I recommend that you pay little attention to the polls regarding the popular vote. The popular vote does not count, as we were reminded in 2000. Pay attention to Intrade’s Electoral College map first, then Intrade’s vote on Obama, then other betting sites (Betfair.com and Electronic Markets) on Obama vs. Romney, then opinion polls of the Electoral College.