Home / Politics / Intrade’s Electoral College Map: Obama = 277, Romney = 261
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Intrade’s Electoral College Map: Obama = 277, Romney = 261

Written by Gary North on October 22, 2012

Intrade is a betting site located in Ireland. It establishes odds based on actual bets of real money. The odds are not rigged.

In 2008, on the morning of the election, Intrade’s map of the vote in the Electoral College was correct in 48 out of 50 states. The two that it was wrong about offset each other. The map was accurate within one electoral vote. No poll was anywhere near this accurate.

On the morning of October 22, here is the map.

It is close. A loss of 8 votes by Obama will elect Romney.

The betting on Obama’s victory is at 61.7%. It was as high as 79% before the first debate. They fell below 60, then recovered, then fell.

I recommend that you pay little attention to the polls regarding the popular vote. The popular vote does not count, as we were reminded in 2000. Pay attention to Intrade’s Electoral College map first, then Intrade’s vote on Obama, then other betting sites (Betfair.com and Electronic Markets) on Obama vs. Romney, then opinion polls of the Electoral College.

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34 thoughts on “Intrade’s Electoral College Map: Obama = 277, Romney = 261

  1. Admiral America says:

    I don't understand how the worst President in US history is so close to winning in every poll. I guess it comes down to not enough people's lives being negatively impacted by the economy, or the police state coupled with a lot of people being morons. I'm sure that will be a different story after 4 more years of Barry.

  2. A point all sites supposedly tracking electoral votes seem to miss is that in Maine, the votes will be split 2 each according to the Senatorial districts. Also, if I’m not mistaken, Massachusetts will give all of its electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote. These could easily give the election to Romney.

  3. It’ easy: Among the blind the one-eyed is king.

  4. Admiral America, I’m guessing it’s because we aren’t in any war as far as the public knows, not to say we’re not sticking our noses into everywhere in Africa and points north. Also, you may not have caught Mitt stating he liked Obamacare and has his own version that he’ll make permanent if possible. He also is supporting the radical Zionists calling for war and people are sick of war. Basically, there is very little difference between the two candidates and big corporations are doing just fine under BO, something they’re fain to admit.

  5. I’m with you, Admiral … if this lying imposter is re-elected, this Nation will succumb never again to represent freedom, liberty, and democracy! It will no longer have a “leader”, but a dictator – America hasn’t had a leader since the Bush Administration regardless of what anyone believes about George W Bush. How he’s captivated so many mindsets is due to heir being like sheep being led to the slaughter while the pied piper plays his flute of deception. In the end, these morons will never “see” the evil,they will blame any and everyone that made their lot in Life so miserable … but never would it be because of a FALSE messiah who will devour them! I’m continuing to PRAY that our Creator IS IN CONTROL and that He will show his BELIEVING CHILDREN HIS MERCY. MAY HE BLESS THIS COUNTRY YET AGAIN, with the BLESSING of a MORAL LEADER WHO IS NOT ASHAMED TO HONOR HIM AND PROFESS that HE is the One TRUE KING!

  6. Scared for US says:

    If Obama was a white man, the choice would be obvious. He has done a terrible job but because he is black, he is getting the black vote. Not all of them, just the ones who only care that they have a black president. Please, don't look at the color of his skin, look at his record!

  7. Maybe because he's really NOT the worst President in US history? That title goes to Dubya Bush.

    – Obama made the call to kill Bin Laden
    – Obama got 25 million people covered under health insurance, so bankruptcy was no longer looming over their heads
    – We've regained more than half the jobs lost under the Bush Recession, and are on track to gain 12 million more (regardless of who becomes the next president)

    Your statement is bunk.

  8. Your comment would have been okay up to the point of using the word "Zionist." So are you antisemitic in your views or just a neo Nazi?

    With EXACT SPECIFICS please PROVIDE THE LINKS to the information that justifies "Zionists calling for war" to quote you.

    Put up or shut up.

  9. Joe … we all know there could have been a better Republican candidate than Romney, BUT! … HE Is the opposition to what we have NOW, so “why” would you vote any other way in THIS election than Republican? We The People have NO CHOICE at this point in time than to vote FOR Romney/Ryan in order to GET obamamaniac OUT OF THE HIGHEST OFFICE IN OUR LAND! America, WAKE UP! We CAN’T KEEP SQUABBLING THAT ONE IS NO BETTER THAN THE OTHER! ONE represents doom and DICTATORSHIP DESTROYING ALL WE KNOW AND LOVE ABOUT AMERICA! The OTHER REPRESENTS KEEPING AMERICA WHO SHE IS REGARDLESS of the damnable “POLITICS”! As one blogger stated, a NO VOTE or a WRITE-IN VOTE (or any other presidential candidates on the ballot) OR a VOTE FOR obamamaniac IS . . . = DEATH TO AMERICA! Is THAT what YOU want, Joe? I abhor “politics”, BUT, this is NOT THE TIME TO ABANDON THE TWO-PARTY “POLITICS”!! We The People MUST GET THE IMPOSTER IN THE WHITE HOUSE OUT!!! This close to a VERY EVIDENT NATIONAL ELECTION, there is NO OTHER WAY APPARENT TO SAVE OUR AMERICA THAN TO VOTE FOR THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES! PLEASE …AMERICA … USE THE INTELLIGENCE THAT YOUR CREATOR BLESSED YOU WITH … NOT YOUR LOYAL “PARTY POLITICS”!

    1) VOTE!! 2) VOTE FOR THE AMERICANS who STILL HONOR OUR GOD IN OUR NATIONAL MOTTO – “IN GOD WE TRUST” !!! PLEASE!!!!!!!!!

  10. Victor N Rios says:

    Keep drinking that Kool-Aid and when Obama's policies turn us into another dictAtorship you will have to eat your words and regret you lack of wisdom. If Obama is so good how come none of his promises have been achieved? I guess, if he gets re-elected he will have to blame his previous 4 years for the continued failures. I know, his problem is Bush, ATM machines, the Japan earthquake, etc. Obama is the messiah of thos who ignore or dismiss the truth.

    VIc the political prisoner

  11. do you ever listen to interviews of people when asking who they will vote for especially on college campuses. Overwhelming for obama but no one has a clue what is going on in the world today. No one has a clue what he has done and is doing to this country. they are only interested in being part of his welfare state. One answer was "oh, he has a nice smile" that is her reason for voting for the jerk. Unfortunately these people vote but don't watch the debates or listen to news that tells the truth. Along with voter ID it should be required to be somewhat knowledgeable about the issues and candidates.

  12. You must be watching mainsteam media . They lie right along with obama. He hasn't done jack —-. except creat a whole bunch of free loaders.

  13. AMEN! LOOK AT HIS RECORD AND REMEMBER ALL HIS LIES AND DECEPTION!! Only those Blacks who want and still do, continually PLAY THE RACE CARD, “see” this election as ” … it’s ’cause he’s a Black man you Whites don’t want another 4 years of our Black messiah!” They are BLINDED by the color of his skin AND what they are so stupidly/foolishly not realizing or accepting IS that ‘good ole obama’ is USING THAT VERY FACT to snow his own Race! It IS THESE SPECIFIC BLACKS THAT PERPETUATE THEIR OWN “SLAVERY”! What We The People NEED are MANY MORE MYCHAL MASSIES! He’s BLACK! He’s INTELLIGENT! He’s SUCCESSFUL! AND, HE LOVES AMERICA AND HATES obama AND STATES IT LIKE IT IS! So, for you Blacks out there who disagree with him … good luck obummer fans, once you are under HIS RULE for another 4 years! (PRAYER: “Have Mercy on We Your Believers, Father Yahweh/God. We humbly ask that you Bless this Nation with the election of one who reveres you, RESPECTS and HONORS YOU, AND ACCEPTS YOU AND YOUR RIGHTFUL PLACE IN AMERICA, AND WHO BELIEVES IN AMERICA’S VALUES AND AMERICANS. We ask this Blessing in the Name of your precious Son, Yahshua/Jesus, THANKING YOU FATHER FOR ANSWERED PRAYER. AMEN!”)

    Sent from my LG phone

  14. Any POTUS that does NOT RESPECT AMERICA AND HER PEOPLE, who will NOT SALUTE THE AMERICAN FLAG, WHO IS AN IMPOSTER WHO LIED HIS WAY INTO THE WHITE HOUSE, who has NO REGARD FOR THE VALUES OF AMERICA AS in THE CONSTITUION OF THE UNITED STATES, … who BOWS to foreign leaders and DISHONORS AMERICA’S MILITARY … OF WHICH IT WAS THE NAVY SEALS WHO TOOK OUT Bin Ladin, which was a PLAN IN PLACE BEFORE obummer – who BTW has NO COURAGE OR INTELLIGENCE TO ORDER THE DEMISE OF ANOTHER MONSTER WITHOUT THE MILITARY BRASS HE HAD SURROUNDING HIM … THE MILITARY HEADS PUT IT INTO ACTION! obummer simply said, “Okay” BECAUSE of the POSITION he holds, you idiot! YOU ARE SO BLINDED! obummer is ALL ANTI-AMERICAN! He’s a Muslim who is directed by HIS faith to eradicate America and all that America represents! He couldn’t accomplish his goals in 4 years, so he’s begging America to give the next 4 to finish the job of DESTROYING OUR COUNTRY! Are YOU NUTS??? STOP drinking the koolaid and get a life! You ARE BRAINWASHED! YOU ARE ONE OF HIS SHEEP WHO WILL BE LED OVER THE CLIFF WITH THIS DELUSIONAL EGOTISTICAL ARROGANT MONSTER’S DECEPTION OF ‘CHANGE’ … THERE IS NO “HOPE” WITH HIS RE-ELECTION! GET IT INTO YOUR HEAD … YOUR VOTE FOR THIS MORON obama = DEATH TO AMERICA. IF you like WHAT obumamaniac IS, PA-LEEEZE … WHEN AMERICA GETS HER GUTS BACK AND VOTES HIS LYING A$$ OUT OF OFFICE, YOU CAN FOLLOW HIM BACK TO AFRICA WHERE HIS ROOTS REALLY ARE!

  15. Any POTUS that does NOT RESPECT AMERICA AND HER PEOPLE, who will NOT SALUTE THE AMERICAN FLAG, WHO IS AN IMPOSTER WHO LIED HIS WAY INTO THE WHITE HOUSE, who has NO REGARD FOR THE VALUES OF AMERICA AS in THE CONSTITUION OF THE UNITED STATES, … who BOWS to foreign leaders and DISHONORS AMERICA’S MILITARY … OF WHICH IT WAS THE NAVY SEALS WHO TOOK OUT Bin Ladin, which was a PLAN IN PLACE BEFORE obummer – who BTW has NO COURAGE OR INTELLIGENCE TO ORDER THE DEMISE OF ANOTHER MONSTER WITHOUT THE MILITARY BRASS HE HAD SURROUNDING HIM … THE MILITARY HEADS PUT IT INTO ACTION! obummer simply said, “Okay” BECAUSE of the POSITION he holds, you idiot! YOU ARE SO BLINDED! obummer is ALL ANTI-AMERICAN! He’s a Muslim who is directed by HIS faith to eradicate America and all that America represents! He couldn’t accomplish his goals in 4 years, so he’s begging America to give the next 4 to finish the job of DESTROYING OUR COUNTRY! Are YOU NUTS??? STOP drinking the koolaid and get a life! You ARE BRAINWASHED! YOU ARE ONE OF HIS SHEEP WHO WILL BE LED OVER THE CLIFF WITH THIS DELUSIONAL EGOTISTICAL ARROGANT MONSTER’S DECEPTION OF ‘CHANGE’ … THERE IS NO “HOPE” WITH HIS RE-ELECTION! GET IT INTO YOUR HEAD … YOUR VOTE FOR THIS MORON obama = DEATH TO AMERICA. IF you like WHAT obumamaniac IS, PA-LEEEZE … WHEN AMERICA GETS HER GUTS BACK AND VOTES HIS SORRY, LYING $%* OUT OF OFFICE, YOU CAN FOLLOW HIM BACK TO AFRICA WHERE HIS ROOTS REALLY ARE!

    Sent from my LG phone

  16. Any POTUS that does NOT RESPECT AMERICA AND HER PEOPLE, who will NOT SALUTE THE AMERICAN FLAG, WHO IS AN IMPOSTER WHO LIED HIS WAY INTO THE WHITE HOUSE, who has NO REGARD FOR THE VALUES OF AMERICA AS in THE CONSTITUION OF THE UNITED STATES, … who BOWS to foreign leaders and DISHONORS AMERICA’S MILITARY … OF WHICH IT WAS THE NAVY SEALS WHO TOOK OUT Bin Ladin, which was a PLAN IN PLACE BEFORE obummer – who BTW has NO COURAGE OR INTELLIGENCE TO ORDER THE DEMISE OF ANOTHER MONSTER WITHOUT THE MILITARY BRASS HE HAD SURROUNDING HIM … THE MILITARY HEADS PUT IT INTO ACTION! obummer simply said, “Okay” BECAUSE of the POSITION he holds, you idiot! YOU ARE SO BLINDED! obummer is ALL ANTI-AMERICAN! He’s a Muslim who is directed by HIS faith to eradicate America and all that America represents! He couldn’t accomplish his goals in 4 years, so he’s begging America to give the next 4 to finish the job of DESTROYING OUR COUNTRY! Are YOU NUTS??? STOP drinking the koolaid and get a life! You ARE BRAINWASHED! YOU ARE ONE OF HIS SHEEP WHO WILL BE LED OVER THE CLIFF WITH THIS DELUSIONAL EGOTISTICAL ARROGANT MONSTER’S DECEPTION OF ‘CHANGE’ … THERE IS NO “HOPE” WITH HIS RE-ELECTION! GET IT INTO YOUR HEAD … YOUR VOTE FOR THIS MORON obama = DEATH TO AMERICA. IF you like WHAT obumamaniac IS, PA-LEEEZE … WHEN AMERICA GETS HER GUTS BACK AND VOTES HIS SORRY, LYING $%* OUT OF OFFICE, YOU CAN FOLLOW HIM BACK TO AFRICA WHERE HIS ROOTS REALLY ARE! WAKE UP!!!

  17. Any POTUS that does NOT RESPECT AMERICA AND HER PEOPLE, who will NOT SALUTE THE AMERICAN FLAG, who IS AN IMPOSTER WHO LIED HIS WAY INTO THE WHITE HOUSE, who has NO REGARD FOR THE VALUES OF AMERICA AS in THE CONSTITUION OF THE UNITED STATES, … who BOWS to foreign leaders and DISHONORS AMERICA’S MILITARY … OF WHICH, BTW, WAS THE NAVY SEALS WHO TOOK OUT Bin Ladin! The PLAN IN PLACE BEFORE obummer – obummer has NO COURAGE OR INTELLIGENCE TO ORDER THE DEMISE OF ANOTHER MONSTER WITHOUT THE MILITARY BRASS SURROUNDING HIM! Anyone who knows Miilitary KNOWS THE REAL “DECISION MAKER”. BECAUSE of the POSITION obummer holds, he is asked to put his “okay” on the decision – nothing more! YOU ARE SO BLINDED like so many college students and anyone who supports obamamaniac! YOUR “REASONS” to vote FOR this monster is nothing more than Democracker party RHETORIC! Ther is NO REAL, SOLID, LOGIC OR SUBSTANCE to YOUR “reasons” to assist this moron another 4 years! obummer is ALL ANTI-AMERICAN! He’s a Muslim who is directed by HIS faith to eradicate America and all that America represents! He couldn’t accomplish his goals in 4 years, so he’s begging America to give him the next 4 years to finish the job of DESTROYING OUR COUNTRY! Are YOU NUTS??? STOP drinking the kool aid and get a life! You ARE BRAINWASHED! YOU ARE ONE OF HIS SHEEP WHO WILL BE LED OVER THE CLIFF WITH THIS DELUSIONAL, EGOTISTICAL, and ARROGANT MONSTER’S DECEPTION OF “CHANGE” … THERE IS NO “HOPE” WITH HIS RE-ELECTION! GET IT INTO YOUR HEAD … YOUR VOTE FOR THIS MORON obama = DEATH TO AMERICA! IF you like WHAT obumamaniac IS, then PA-LEEEZE … WHEN AMERICA GETS HER GUTS BACK AND VOTES HIS SORRY, LYING A$$ OUT OF OFFICE, YOU CAN FOLLOW HIM BACK TO AFRICA WHERE HIS ROOTS REALLY ARE! WAKE UP!!!

  18. Texas Chris says:

    @Shane

    1) No, he didn't. Michael Sheuer says OBL was dead in 2001.
    2) No, he didn't. What he did was cause employers to kick 30 million people off healthcare by trying to force everyone to buy insurance.
    3) No, we haven't. there are 100,000 fewer jobs today than the day Obama took office. The real unemployment number is about 16%.

    (Not that I like Romney, and not that I liked Bush, but Obama is a horrible president.)

  19. Texas Chris says:

    Folks like this partisan hack never get it. It's always someone else's fault, somebody else messed up, somebody else is obstructing, somebody else…

    He's a team-politics guy. He doesn't understand that they're all alike.

  20. Texas Chris says:

    Government should be so inconsequential that it wouldn't matter if these kool-aid drinkers voted or not.

  21. Texas Chris says:

    If it's that close, yes. But if the MSM is reporting a close race, then it's not. It's a GOP landslide.

    If it was close, they'd still be reporting 0bama by a mile.

  22. Texas Chris says:

    "Zionist" doesn't refer to race or culture. Therefore, it cannot be "anti-Semetic." Race card fail.

    As to proof, the CIA, Mossad, and the IAEA all report that Iran has no nuclear bomb making capability. The IAEA says they believe Iran wants a bomb, but concedes they have no means to make one.

    Meanwhile, Bibi stands in front of the UN and claims they are building a bomb. Romney says it. Obama says it. The MSM says it. But listen to the intelligence reports given Congress for the last 10 years: no bomb program in Iran.

  23. Texas Chris says:

    What record?

  24. CelticRune says:

    …..what the h*ll are you smoking? Look everyone….this is what was meant when Lenin coined the phrase "useful idiots". these folks enable the government to take away your freedoms right under your very noses……….and they smile and nod their heads in agreement, just happy to help it along. One day…when they wake up and see what has been done…..there won't be any going back…..not without a great deal of bloodshed and misery. OK Mr. Jones, another round of that kool aid and it's on the house………drink up fools.

  25. CelticRune says:

    well Vic…..we could explain it until we're blue in the face, but we can't make them understand it. This is the result of our wonderful educational system. Dumbing people down, indoctrinating them with revisionist history and 15 second sound bytes. God forbid anyone actually pick up a history book. This has happened before, numerous times and all ended bad. People don't know what communism is, no one has taught them. Nothing is more dangerous that ignorant people in large groups (see congress/senate/gov't bureaucracy). Sheep led to slaughter. None are so blind than those who are shown but will not see.

  26. Brian Lary says:

    listen dude..they are lieing to you. Not one job has been created. There is less people working than when he took office. If he told you there gold n them there hills u would be digging wouldnt u. Tell me one thing he has told the truth about. He cant even produce a birth certificate thats legit. If he could he would so everyone would shut up. And we are headed for financial destruction. If no one is working then they have no revenue to pay for your damn free Obama phone or your welfare. People will be leaving this country by the thousands. And u are right about one thing…he isnt the worst President because as far as I am concerned he doesnt qualify to be President. He wasnt born here and all he does is lie. His loyalty is not to the United States of America. If u want to destroy this nation you do from the inside and he is gonna do it cause he isnt leaving the whitehouse.

  27. Maybe its just my skepticism, but who is to say that the powers behind Obama are not buying Obama shares to sway this poll toward Obama? There are billions of dollars missing from Obama's spending and I have no doubt at all that the money is being used now to skew every indicator available to dishearten anti-Obama voters.

  28. I am not so sure that the model they have drawn up is accurate. Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Nevada from what I have read, may not be in Dem control. I'm not sure how much Nevada depends upon coal jobs, but the other two states do quite a bit. They are also have fairly heavy union populations, which have turned against the Dems. I have also heard that Republicans have made great gains in Indiana and it may be a red state. This would alter the count quite a bit.

  29. Firstly, I want to apologize for the repetitions of my post replying to Shane; I NEVER intended to post so many times the same message nor was I shouting – I use caps to show importance of what I am stating, NOT to gain attention! When using a cell to blog, there aren’t “options” to underscore or italicise, or use bold format.

    This web-site has a problem and needs to use some discretion with what’s being posted or how often something gets posted, not just what the content is. Each time I tried to post, it would refer me back to “try again” as it did NOT post! I was using my cell phone to reply, which I thought was the “problem”, but apparently not! Now that I am viewing this article from a computer, I am embarrassed and want this web-site to examine their purpose for not PROOF READING/CHECKING, that THIS PARTICULAR REPLY was already “posted” several times! Therefore, I apologize to the blogging public!

    I do feel my last post was the most important, so in case it was missed, am copying and pasting it again. “Thank-you” for your understanding. The “post” was in reply to “SCARED FOR US”:

    “AMEN! LOOK AT HIS RECORD AND REMEMBER ALL HIS LIES AND DECEPTION!! Only those Blacks who want and still do, continually PLAY THE RACE CARD, “see” this election as ” … it’s ’cause he’s a Black man you Whites don’t want another 4 years of our Black messiah!” They are BLINDED by the color of his skin AND what they are so stupidly/foolishly not realizing or accepting, which IS that ‘good ole obama’ is USING THAT VERY FACT to SNOW his own Race! It IS THESE SPECIFIC BLACKS THAT PERPETUATE THEIR OWN “SLAVERY”! What We The People NEED are MANY MORE MYCHAL MASSIES! He’s BLACK! He’s INTELLIGENT! He’s SUCCESSFUL! AND, HE LOVES AMERICA AND HATES obama AND STATES IT LIKE IT IS! So, for you Blacks out there who disagree with Mychal … good luck obummer fans, once you are under HIS RULE for another 4 years!”

    (PRAYER: “Have Mercy on We Your Believers, Father Yahweh/God. We humbly ask that you Bless this Nation with the election of one who reveres you, RESPECTS and HONORS YOU, AND ACCEPTS YOU AND YOUR RIGHTFUL PLACE IN AMERICA, AND WHO BELIEVES IN AMERICA’S VALUES AND AMERICANS. We ask this Blessing in the Name of your precious Son, Yahshua/Jesus, THANKING YOU FATHER, FOR ANSWERED PRAYER. AMEN!”)

  30. Blair Franconia, NH says:

    Romney leads in the likely voter poll. Anyone with a lead in the likely voter poll in mid-October, has never lost an election. Also, since 1980, the University of Colorado, has predicted the winner of every election, starting with Carter-Reagan. Obama's going down in flames.

  31. mathischristian says:

    The worst President in US history might win because the GOP is putting forward what might be its worst nominee in history.

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  33. Shawn Shannon says:

    To me it's pretty simple. Americans as a whole are wanting something for nothing, they feel entitled. Our grandparents worked their tails off. We are a lazy nation. Obama caters to that. The rest of us that get out and bust our humps everyday are carrying more and more of the tax load. At some point it just isn't worth it. I'm a small business owner and work 10 hours/day. I'm very thankful I have the health and the ability to do it. I'm proud of what we are building here. We need a president who understands that. Mr. Obama as far as I know has never had a job.

  34. " Best ' , news , I have heard ; in a long time .