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Intrade Betting on Obama: 63%

Written by Gary North on October 10, 2012

He is around 63% today.

This article gives an assessment.

Intrade bills itself as “the world’s leading prediction market,” and it truly is a market in the sense that visitors can buy or sell “shares” — and make or lose real money — in a particular event’s outcome. Intrade has facilitated wagers on the size of the box office for a particular movie’s opening weekend, the Supreme Court ruling on whether Obamacare is unconstitutional, and yes, even presidential elections.

Users buy shares at the prevailing market rate ($6.44 for an Obama victory, for example), and get paid off if the event comes to pass (Obama shares would be worth $10 in the event of an Obama win, while Romney shares would be worth $0.)

But what do the amateurs who participate in this online market know that professional political analysts don’t?

True, anybody and everybody can place wagers at the Intrade website, and there’s no guarantee some of them aren’t crazy. Then again, there is one distinct difference between the people who handicap the presidential race on Intrade and the talking heads who predict winners on TV — the folks at Intrade are putting something of real value on the line, while the television gurus can hit or miss with little consequence.

And the Intrade crowd is good … really good. For example, the site’s bettors not only correctly predicted George Bush would be re-elected in 2004, the group even properly predicted which candidate would win each state (and subsequently how it would cast its electoral college vote). In 2008, Intrade’s bettors correctly predicted Barack Obama would be victorious; they picked wrong on the voting outcome for two states — Missouri and Indiana, each with 11 electoral votes, were flipped in the run-up to the election — and the final electoral vote count was off by just 1 (due to Nebraska splitting its votes for the first time in history).

But what about Romney’s media-declared victory in last week’s first presidential debate? Intrade’s crowd is adaptive too. Prior to the debate, Barack Obama was given a 79% chance of re-election, vs. a 21% shot of a Romney upset. The market rewarded the GOP candidate’s relative success in the debate, but was savvy enough to realize even a really strong showing in the first debate wasn’t going to be enough to turn the tide. Indeed, this week’s national polls show the race much tighter than it was prior to the debate, but Intrade bettors are still backing Obama by 18 points.

And If the Tide Turns?

While that Intrade gap may seem insurmountable for Romney, stranger things have happened. And if it does happen, the site will updating the odds along the way — just as the payouts are constantly updated in horse racing, right up until the race begins. . . .

But here’s the key takeaway — whoever Intrade has as the favorite on Monday, Nov. 5, is stunningly likely to be your next president.

Continue Reading on investorplace.com

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8 thoughts on “Intrade Betting on Obama: 63%

  1. So, if obama wins i can make money if i invest in him….Doesn’t sound like a safe investment. People, not me, already invested in him and now us, the hard working people are paying the tab. I’ll sit this one out.. If I did back him and unvested, made a little profit it would be gone the day i pull up to the pumps for gas then headed to the grocery store. I like sound investments, i’ll keep my money and invest in Romney..

  2. Let me make this as clear as possible, the Muslim-Marxist already know's that he is assured another term – I predict a lifetime, sort'a like [CHAEVAS] both dictators, not presidents – as he had informed his comrade from the motherland as he nudged his elbow and whispered in his ear: I'll be able to have more leverage after the election." With a little help from his friends: the Fifth Column media, Back Panthers, resurected ACORN, illegal alien constituency, black grifters with their cell phones and welfare checks and to be sure, a Spanish firm tied to Soros to tally the ballots and commie judges that will rule in the favor of the new Hitler should there be a need for any recounts, the fuhrer will prevail! I'll lay 50 to 1, on Romney overcomming the "Perfect Political Storm" of defeat, want any action?

  3. The only reason Chavez is being demonized by the western media (and winning the last election in a country that doesn't have paperless hackable voting software like the good ole US of A) is he is starting to sell oil in currencies other than the dollar.

    Gaddafi was the poster boy for a reformed terrorist who became the US's friend again until he started talking about a new national currency for Libyans based on the gold dinar and NOT on a debt-ridden private banking cartel like we have here. Boom, he was assassinated within a week.

    We are on the brink of WWIII because other countries are trying to divest from the dollar and all our government can think of as a solution is to invade the rest of planet earth and install a friendly puppet ruler who will continue to prop up the petro-dollar.

    And Americans wonder why the rest of humanity hates us so much.

  4. Excellent, Danno.

  5. I would like nothing more than to have Romney win this election. I know that no one is perfect, but Obama strains the limits of reason. It seems when we get a little glimmer of HOPE for a CHANGE in the right direction, along comes an article like this one.

  6. Obama was all about "hope" and "change" just like Romney is now touting "hope" and "change". I was a delegate to the GOP county and district conventions. I saw firsthand what the Romney faction is willing to do to get Mitt the nomination: last-minute rules change, vote fraud, ignore what the voters want in order to railroad through a candidate decided long before the first straw poll was held. The fact that Romney and his minions are prepared to do anything to get power tells me if…if he wins, he will do anything to keep it. That is just more of the same that we've had for most of my adult years.

    Lastly, if one post on TPE is enough to send his poll numbers swirling into the al-qaeda, then his lead was more imagined than real to start with.

  7. Danno is a PMS Troll. Chavez is a corrupt dictator and that is why he won the Mexican election again, because they do not have paperless computerized software that is difficult to be hacked. His people live in fear and poverty while he lives like a king. Gaddafi was a mentally ill person, insane. NO poster boy to the U.S. fool. AND the rest of humnaity does NOT hate us. All lies, lies, lies. Our prez. and his government are playing live video games daily with drones and they tell everyone they are anti-war and they are causing more war to happen every day with their failed foreign policy and BS apologies. They are going down and America will celebrate her victory very soon. The world already can see Romney will be in the WH soon. Intel is jerking all chains with their bets on obummer. The polls are rigged and the real money is on Romney for a landslide victory. Anyone who bets on obummer is a loser. Everything that bo is associated with, loses and loses big time. Just look at our country for the proof. LOL… big idiots. I have a bridge to paradise for sale too. 30 virgins are waiting at the other end of it. Start the bidding please……….

  8. Jpsartre12 says:

    Danno probably believed the Dems when they said the Libyian ambassador was killed because of a movie. Obama’s slogan for 2012 is “lie and obfuscate” instead of 2008’s “hope and change”.