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Intrade Betting: Republican Odds Collapse for Senate Control

Written by Gary North on September 28, 2012

A week ago, betting had Republican control at 53. Today, it’s 16. This is a total collapse.

Something fundamental has changed.

Ominous: House Republican odds have fallen from 90 to 75.

Intrade is strictly betting. There are no explanations. But this decline for the Republicans indicate a major shift of sentiment.

Something big is happening.

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23 thoughts on “Intrade Betting: Republican Odds Collapse for Senate Control

  1. If this prediction is true, the GOP did it to itself, blew its foot off. The Romney nomination was in the bag long before the campaign season started. What the rank-and-file delegates and voters wanted was of no concern to the RNC. The caucuses, primaries and conventions were just a charade to give the illusion that the voters had any choice in the process. Whatever happens to the GOP come November (barring massive vote fraud), it will get what it deserves.

  2. I agree. Same thing with McCain in 2008. The RNC had its way. McCain-a nice guy, but the BEST that the Party could come up with?? I think not. Palin-a nice person, but candidate for VP?? I think not. Result?? Predictable!! Thanks RNC!!
    Personally, I supported Newt Gingrich. While I disliked him immensly when he was Speaker of the House of Reps, he has since that time impressed me very much. Frankly, I'd love to see him in a debate with Obama. Obama would lose!!
    Right now, it's ANYBODY BUT OBAMA!!!
    Wayne Zimmerman

  3. The Problem with the 2 party system is neither listens to the people. The always blow out rhetoric for this or that. But when it comes to doing anything close to what we want they fail miserably. I think its time for a 3rd party. But the fools just keep voting the same way every year so we get what we vote for. I get a kick out of the politicians when they start to campaign. The lies just flow out of their mouths. Completely different views from they actually did during the term in office. LOL, !!! They remind me of the energizer bunny, they just keep on lying lying lying. LOL!

  4. Totally agree with what you said. The establishment deserves this beating big time even if it means 4 more years of Obama. Although the blame also has to go to the republican voters in the primaries who were sceptical of Romney throughout but in the end they bought the establishment argument that "Romney might not be great for conservatives but he can win because he a polished candidate".

    Instead the opposite was true as some conservative were saying that instead what is needed is somebody who shares nothing in common with Obama so as to have a real choice between two visions. First McCain and now Romney, when will people start to really distrust everything the establishment comes up with.

  5. The radical religious right is having itsa revenge. In Missouri, that nut case candidate Akin is the new hero. Romney's failure to embrace the radical religious agenda is killing him and Santorum and Huckabee can't wait to say"i told you so"/ Their lukewarm support is obvious. Now they will say "if we had nominated a real religious candidate like Santorum the evangelicals and Catholics would have supporrted him". The religious will solidify their grip on the Republivan Party and that will be its end.

  6. Can anyone out there tell me why last summer Ann Coulter predicated Romney would be the RNC choice WELL BEFORE the "season" even started? What is it, or should I ask, she knew/knows that the rest of us missed?

    Seems strange, too strange, she called it over a year ago before anything even started. I doubt she is psychic or that good of a guesser. She did this on the O'Reilly show if I remember correctly but I do remember it was on Fox.

  7. Ann Coulter was smart enough to think that the establishment candidate would win but was always obvious. If you're the establishment candidate you get good treatment by the media(in republican primaries against the crazies to the right of him) and the big thinkers(intellectuals), the big business people will back you with money. Just look at who Romney's top donors are.

    Ann Coulter was hardly a genius for putting her money on Romney. Now if Rick Perry wasn't just an idiot then perhaps he could have been a real challenge to the establishment but he was part of it himself but just less polished then Romney who is establishment's dream because he is willing to say anything to please those in power. Perry was no great guy but at least he would write stuff in his book like Social Security being a ponzi scheme. Coulter made the safest bet possible and it was especially safe considering the candidates that were offered as an alternative. Now she can enjoy Romney's succes all she want and pat herself on the back for backing "the most conservative candidate in the field" as she claimed.

  8. Easy answer: If you're only watching/reading mainstream media, the race is clearly over. I'm reminded of October '80 when the flailing, gaffe-ridden challenger was trailing in the polls by up to double digits. the same media at work then as now could not suppress the turnout with this same, tired message. We'll see if it works this time around.

  9. The only thing we had going,was GOP win the Senate.with out that, and Obama wins. Obama is really going to keep doing every thing he has been doing.All muslim held countries are going to start getting plenty Aid. Hell with the debt, he answers to no one.

  10. The GOP could have owned the White House if they hadn't hated Ron Paul so much as the nominee. That would have presented a complete clear total contrast and choice to Obama. But no, the RNC chose to take the same path they took in '32 and they have shut themselves out of national politics for the next 50 years.

  11. What you say is true about '80, however, Romney is NOT another Ronald Reagan. In '80 we also had paper ballots counted by hand in public with witnesses from both parties present to lessen the potential vote fraud.

    Today we have electronic voting machines with no paper trail, loaded with proprietary software owned by private corporations who refuse to let anyone see the source code that tabulates the voting. They have been shown over and over that they can be hacked and the totals altered and no one will ever know how the real winner is. This is the biggest negative development in elections since '80 when I too was a voter.

  12. It is hard to say for sure but I think the rule change the the GOP convention that alienated Ron Paul supporters has them walking in 2012… Everyone warned and warned and no on listened…

  13. Joe Winpisinger says:

    Wonder if the GOP will open up the tent to the Liberty Movement?

  14. Don’t vote Obama or Romney.

  15. Texas Chris says:

    I agree with everything except blaming the Republican voter. I believe in my heart that their wishes were not reflected in the outcomes of the primaries and caucuses, nor from the conventions.

    then again, I am not beholden to the US government. If it collapses under Obama, well… The God Bless Texas.

  16. Texas Chris says:

    I don't even think McCain is a nice guy. Scapegoat, perhaps…

  17. Texas Chris says:

    I totally disagree. The libertarian wing of the party is poised to take over. But Romney will have to lose in roder for that to happen the next cycle.

  18. Texas Chris says:

    Coulter wanted Christie, and when he refused she opted for Romney. Smart girl, but not smart enough to back Ron Paul.

    FYI, Perry was on Robaxin and Methocarbomal when he was debating. He'd just had a serious back surgery. Very serious. I'm no Perry fan, but he is WAY better in a debate than he showed. I blame the drugs. Or thank them, depending…

  19. Texas Chris says:

    Good point on the vote counting. The question is, who profits best from which candidate winning in a rigged election?

  20. Texas Chris says:

    It's fine by me. I'd rather the party die than have the party continue to not represent my values.

    We can't have the Big Government Party and the Bigger Government Party. There's gotta be a viable small-government option on the ballot.

  21. Texas Chris says:

    I can tell you 100% that the way the GOP treated me as a Paul delegate has me NOT voting for Romney.

    However, it HAS motivated me to get involved in party leadership at the county level.

  22. Texas Chris says:

    You should wonder if the liberty movement is going to allow the old guard GOP to stay in the party.

  23. Thomas G. Brown says:

    I agree Texas Chris I was a delegate at the Republican convention and it was forced down our throats that we must vote for Romney. I for one did not I voted for Congressman Paul and on the Republicans doing it to themselves your right. The small group of power brokers in the party manipulated the state parties to push for anyone but Congressman Paul and for a while they really wanted Rick Santorum but they could not get him through and so they decided to push Romney.