Home / Politics / Rasmussen Poll: 46% to 46%. Intrade: Obama Win: 70.2%
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Rasmussen Poll: 46% to 46%. Intrade: Obama Win: 70.2%

Written by Gary North on September 24, 2012

On September 22, the Rasmussen poll indicated a dead heat: 46% to 46%.

I checked Intrade, the Irish betting site. It said the odds favoring Obama’s victory are at a high point in 2012: 70.2%.

This discrepancy will be a good test retroactively of sampling theories. Rasmussen polls people who are eligible to vote. Intrade just reports the odds based on actual bets.

I think Obama will win. I think so because of Intrade. We will see in November if my trust in Intrade was justified.

Of course, the best test will be on the day before the election: traditional polling vs. betting.

If Obama wins handily, and other betting sites confirm this, traditional polling firms had better report an Obama victory, too. If they don’t, word will get out: they are as useless as horoscopes. But horoscopes are always popular.

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47 thoughts on “Rasmussen Poll: 46% to 46%. Intrade: Obama Win: 70.2%

  1. You nitwit. This is the kind of story the MSM will jump all over. "Irish site predicts Obama win 70.2%!" They won't mention that it is a betting site or anything else, they will just leave the impression that he's got 70% of the vote, which your headline also does.

    Nice job. Why don't you write an article detailing the proof that Obama's furnished documents are forgeries (as has been clearly proven)?

  2. Kbreedlove50 says:

    Intrade undoubtedly reflects European wishful thinking.

  3. Obviously “Intrade” does NOT see or feel the PAIN that Obama has brought down upon OVER 50% of the REAL U.S. LEGAL voting electorit…………

  4. Actually, Rasmussen does not poll eligible voters. There are three categories of possible voters: 1) Those who are eligible to vote, whether registered or not; 2) Those who are registered to vote; and 3) Likely voters. It is this last category that Rasmussen polls and this is the most reliable group. Many of those who are simply eligible under the law are not registered and, in those state requiring registration, cannot vote, regardless of their opinion expressed to poll takers. Many of those who are registered to vote will not vote. The most reliable group, therefore, is those that are self-declared likely voters. Intrade measures bettors, not necessarily persons who will actually vote. I think Rasmussen is the most reliable and has been proven to be so in recent presidential elections.

  5. Dave Fiorini says:

    Rasmussen is very acurate. The election is close, Romney will pull it out as did Reagan did against Carter. I remember that Pres. Carter was ahead of then Gov. Reagan by 5-6 % two weeks before the election. The result was that Pres Reagan won by landslide.
    We sometimes question the American peoples thinking but in the end they will make the right choice and get Obama out of the White house and vote the qualified person, Romney , in. if propoerly vetted in 08 Obama would never be in that house without a visitors pass.

  6. Why are people complaining over the results of intrade. This is silly. Intrade is where people, who put their money where their mouth is, come together. They generally do better than polls. The fact that Intrade is indicating an Obama win doesn't mean that people betting on it are saying they want Obama to win anymore then betting for one sportsteam means you like the team or generally wants the team to win.

    Don't shoot the messenger…especially not when he is often right

  7. Those stats at Intrade mean zilch.First of all,the people doing the betting are probably 90% foreigners who cant even vote in our election.Second: The foreigners doing the betting are basing their decision on info primarily received from the main street media which is blatantly Pro-Obama.Third:Obama,by being the incumbent is perceived as the favorite to begin with,thereby,a mindset is created in the public that he is somewhat invincible.Fourth: The public is wrong a lot more than they are right about prognosticating events and to be on their side can be hazardous to your wallet. By the way, I bet $200 to win $310 on Romney,only because I looked at everything and I dont see how in a sensible world,Obama can win.However,the world isnt all that sensible today,is it ?

  8. "nitwit"? People who bet on INtrade are political advisors, insiders and hacks w/ inside knowledge. Their predictive knowledge is much more valuable than what newspapers say about the market itself. Get a clue. This comment is absolutely worthless – as are those who gave it a (+).

  9. False. Undoubtedly reflects insider thinking and possibly speculators who have viewed an electoral map while studying polls from swing states.

  10. Great comment. Agree with all strongly except the view of Intrade as just a betting market; many of those bettors are political insiders with additional information. That's why they are generally more predictive than polling IMHO. Rasmussen's reputation isn't as good as you think it is; his polls were too strong McCain last election cycle. John Chait (whom overall I don't like) has a good look at why Rasmussen's numbers skew GOP:
    http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/75161/the-

  11. I strongly suspect the Obama campaign is buying up lots of bets that they will win. Anyone willing to lose money can move Intrade to say whatever they want. Sounds like a good time to pick up some easy cash (betting against Obama).

  12. You don't even need to be a U.S. citizen to place bets with Intrade. Eurojerks all love Barryboy.

  13. BRAVO Russ!!! I think this news column is really run by libs and they are screwing with us. Here are the facts to the nitwit who wrote this article. In 2009 BO won with 53% of the vote. FAR from a landslide but he got the majority. Today MILLIONS of those in that 53% have seen the light and are NOT in support of this admin. any longer. The Catholic Church has turned on obama, that's many millions who voted for him in 2009 and are NOT voting for him in 2012. In 2010 senate & house elections were a landslide RED. Every single election since then has done the same thing. RED. Even in Wisconsin where they had a re-do and got millions of dollars from unions to support the dems did NOT work for them. Second re-count brought MORE people to vote for the RED guy. YEA, second time around was more red votes then the first round. This Irish betting site is most likely just obama's minions putting out BS information. If you, The Tea Party Economist are going to say you are Tea Party then ACT LIKE IT. OBAMA IS TOAST IN NOV. / ROMNEY/RYAN will win by 70% fool.

  14. FALSE. Insider traders….ha ha ha ha, you are a fool. Have you read any of their comments in their news sites like Insider Wealth or ZeroHedge? LOLOLOL. Idiot you are Klejdys. Those 'traders' are just riding the wave of fiat wealth coming down the pike from Ben & BO. When they leave the market trading place they are preparing for collapse. They are not voting for BO, just taking the money while it can be had to prepare for the economic collapse that will happen if we get 4 more. You talk out of your a$$. Smelly garbage is all it is. There are NO swing states. They are all RED. FL is RED. Went 67% conservative red in Aug. primaries. Go soak your smelly a$$ in some salt. Hope it burns.

  15. Wake up Earl – Obama took Rasmussen to court so now they report false hoods. It is all over the news. NOT reliable, NOT actual NOT credible anymore. ALL the polls are BS. The truth in the poll numbers is flipped. If they say it is 46% RED then it is really 64% RED. FACT: In 236 years through 43 presidents we accumulated 9.8 trillion dollars in debt. In 4 yrs. of Obama we have accumulated 6 trillion in debt. ONE president 6 trillion dollars. 43 presidents 9.8 trillion. Do you not see this? That is 60% of the total debt by one guy in 4 yrs. AND at his DNC convention he promised to DOUBLE down on the last 4 yrs in his next 4 yrs. We will be dead if that should occur. That is all anyone needs to see. America DOES NOT SURVIVE 4 MORE with obama. END OF STORY. That is what is real. You are PMS – Get lost commie.

  16. It's important to Obama for the national polls to be tight. How else could you explain voter fraud if they were reported in actuals?

  17. That 70.2 is out for one reason,to get more people to vote Obama.It looks like Obama is winning all the time.Its the same as counting your chickens , before they hatch. Its good way to have egg on your face.

  18. Here's Republican party reptile Roger Stone on Rasmussen polling and why it, and Dick Morris, are off (hint: they don't use cell phones in their polling at all) on why Romney isn't polling better:
    http://stonezone.com/

  19. I totally resent polemics by someone who doesn't have the intestinal fortitude to identify themselves with a name. Furthermore, I am anything but a "commie" and I do not suffer from PMS. I am a life-long conservative Republican. If you have guts enough to identify yourself, I will be happy to compare resumes with you to determine who needs to wake up. It is stupid to attack someone who agrees with your position. My approach in this response was to point out that Dr. North made an error in referring to Rasmussen's methodology as measuring "eligible voters." If you could get off of your soapbox long enough to actually read what someone is saying, we might be able to have an intelligent conversation.

  20. Ah. I smell VICTORY. It is sweet. Now, to sweep aside the backward wack jobs and take this country into the 21st century.

  21. It is also possible that people use Intrade as a hedge or insurance. In other words, if Obama wins, they expect to lose a lot in their business or regular life, so the Intrade payoff will alleviate some of their losses.

  22. Regardless of what Rasmussen, Pew, Intrade, Gallup, Miss Cleo, the stars, etc., predict, the presidential race will be decided by the companies that control the proprietary software on the electronic voting machines that we have to use every election day.

  23. "Guest" and his tag-team of disinfo artists, you guys are a hoot!

  24. If I were the campaign chief of the Obama campaign, and knowing how people react to intrade betting, I would simply ask people I know to bid up the Obama ticket and down the Romney ticket. I would purposely try to skew the betting to make Obama look good and Romney look like a sure loser. The stocks at intrade are thin in number and can be manipulated. It would not take much funds to do it. I have tried to buy stocks on this election at intrade, but could not get my money to them, if I took action, for about 2 to 3 months. They will not place trades unless they have cash in hand, but the international movement of funds, for me, is not at all quickly accomplished. So I declined to do it. One might then ask, well, if Obama can do it, why not Romney? I can't answer that, but the winnings are not going to be but a few thousand each, and they may have another strategy. In short, I do not think intrade is able to call this election. Notice the betting for Obama has gotten stronger as his poll numbers have been sinking. Why is that? Because the intrade trading seems to be skewed purposely by traders, probably for political reasons.

  25. Here it is in a nutshell: One of the Muslim's henchmen, Axlerod had the DOJ sue I think it was Gallop Poll – because they showed the dictator behind, they are posting these BOGUS poll numbers to; 1) discourage Republicans from going out to vote; 2) when they steal yet another pseudo-election, it will be more believable to the sheeple! End of story!

  26. Dear Mr. Obama:
    We all know you're a communist God hating, America hating
    bi-sexual muslim. We all know that you support the molestation
    of children, men & women at the airport. I'm wondering if you're
    a child molester yourself. Perhaps you should be investigated
    for such crimes, but we all know that America's legal system would
    protect child molesters at your level. We all know that you have a
    so-called terrorist watch list, more accurately known as a hit list.
    I want to share with you some things about me that I know will
    put me at the top of your hit list.

    1). I'm a Christian. I believe that the Bible (the KJV)
    is God's inspired Word in English. this one alone
    should put me at the top of your list.

    2). Unlike your supporters, I bow my knee before Jesus
    because He's the King of Kings & Lord of lords. Know this:
    Jesus says that the day is coming when EVERY knee shall
    bow before Jesus & EVERY tongue shall confess that
    Jesus is Lord.

    2). I'm a Vietnam era veteran who loves his nation.
    This one too should put me at the top of your hit list.
    We all know how you hate veterans who love their
    nation, just like your many supporters do.

    3). Unlike your supporters, I support our troops 100%.

    4). Unlike your many supporters, I support pay raises
    for America's military staff.

    5). Unlike you & your supporters, I'm a very strong supporter
    of the 2nd amendment. I also support the NRA 100%.

    6). Unlike your supporters, I have a deep respect for
    America's law enforcement.

    7). Unlike you & your supporters, I support the closing
    of America's boarders & the deportation of all illegals
    by any means necessary.

    8). Unlike you & your supporters, I support the deportation
    of all muslims, starting with you.

    9). Unlike you & your supporters, I support the imprisonment
    of all communists, starting with those at the Southern Poverty
    Law Center & the ACLU.

    10). Unlike you & your many supporters, I support drug testing
    for anyone receiving welfare.

    11). Unlike you & your many supporters, I support capital punishment.

    12). Unlike you & your millions of supporters, God opposes the sins
    of homosexuality & lesbianism & so do I.

    13). Any politician caught lying or stealing
    should get 10 years in prison breaking big
    rocks into little rocks.

    14) The teaching of God's Word needs to
    be made mandatory in America's schools
    and Colleges.

    15). Evolution is a lie & the teaching of
    such should be made a crime with a
    5 year prison sentence.

    16). Unlike you & your many supporters, I support Israel
    & the Jewish people. I oppose anyone who opposes them
    which includes the so-called United Nations.
    May the Lord Bless & protect Israel & the Jewish people.
    My heart is with the Jewish people.

    17). Unlike many of you supporters,
    I go to work everyday & pay taxes.
    Mr. Obama do you work everyday?
    That's a fair question.

    18). Unlike many of your supporters,
    I don't receive public assistance of any kind.

    19). Unlike you & many of your supporters I salute
    the America flag & respect it.

    20). Mr. Obama many of us understand
    who you are & what you are & who stands
    beside you.

  27. Are the percentages at Intrade wager-weighted? Meaning, are bigger dollars weighted higher? If this is simply manipulation, as some suggest, then minimum bets could really drive the figure, if you’re not accounting for the size of the wager.

  28. American thinker says:

    Who is John Galt?

    Because if Obama wins again my money time and business skills are staying in the OFF position. If Romney wins I am opening a new business.

  29. BulldogRedeemer says:

    Right on! You are correct. Nice to see an intelligent evaluation of the polls. Now if the electorate were as intelligent. I have my doubts. This election shouldn't even be close with all the anti-American baggage and poor performance of the Obama administration. But it will be close—I just don't get it!

  30. The"luck of the Irish" is about to cost a lot of people a lot of money!

  31. tellitlikeitis says:

    thats fantastic that they are betting on obama in the majority, these betting parlors are not in the business of losing or they would not have been in business for the last 100 years or so,the majority of the betting public always lose,if they didn't these betting parlors would not be in business,so the fact that they have been betting on obama by a 70 to 30 ratio makes me very comfortable that romney will win, thank you from a gambler for over 30 years.

  32. If the American people could be relied upon to always make the right choice Obama wouldn't have been elected the first time, Bush the elder would have been re-elected, and Clinton would have been a one term president. Some times voters don't have the brains God gave a crow bar….let's hope this isn't one of those times….

  33. You are not factoring in the dead vote. They, of course, cannot be polled but their votes are counted the same as those of us that are alive. Over 99% of them will be votes for Obama. Don't stay home on 11/6.

  34. I blame McCain for Obama's win. He should have told us that Obama was a Muslim Communist. I hope that Romney gets that fact across. The Democrats I talk to don't believe me but maybe if Romney said it many would believe. There is plenty of proof in Obama's performance.

  35. Blair Franconia, NH says:

    I hope not.

  36. Stone says minorities are under-represented because they own cell phones rather than landlines.Sure,a higher ratio might own cell-phones rather than landlines,however, in total numbers whites own far more cells than minorities,for the very simple reason that their are more whites than minorities.So when you argue that minorities will be Pro-Obama,then you are able to make the counter-point that a majority of white voters will be Pro-Romney.According to Wikipedia 9/12/2012
    the USA pop.breakdown is white:63.7 ; black:12.6 : latino:16.4.So if whites hold a lead of 63.7 – 29 % in population then for every 1000 calls made,637 must go to whites and 290 to minorities with the remaining 73 to be viewed as independents.By logic,using those figures is the closest thing you can get to a true poll.In total there will be more white cell-phone owners who are disqualified from the landline call list than manorities.

  37. DEAR RAYMOND, I SAY AMEN TO YOUR LIST OF 20 THINGS YOU ARE. THERE ARE MANY OTHER AMERICANS BESIDE MYSELF THAT COMPLETELY AGREE WITH YOU AND WILL GO OUT ON NOV.6 AND VOTE FOR MITT ROMNEY. I JUST GOT AN E-MAIL FROM RALPH REED OF THE CHRISTIAN COALITION THAT IS WORKING OVERTIME TO REACH ALL CHRISTIANS IN THEIR CHURCHES TO GO OUT AND MAKE THIS A LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR MITT ROMNEY. WITH GOD'S HELP THIS IS MOST CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
    GOD BLESS AMERICA
    RUTH

  38. sherman4040 says:

    Gary North has stated that Obama will win reelection by winning 70.2% of the vote! I don't think that even 70.2% of likely voters will even show up, much less 70.2% of registered voters. You believe the MSM !!!! What a joke! The Obama base is totally disillusioned and you believe some Irishman, sitting in his basement writing the crap that he is disseminating is something we should believe! Mr. North, wake up and smell the coffee! This boob of a President and His Secr of State just murdered an American Ambassador and you think the American people don't realize that the President makes one gaffe after another and is complicit, along with Ms Clinton in the deaths of 4 Americans in Libya! The news is out! Clinton knew about the attack AND TOLD NO ONE ABOUT it! Especially, Ambassador Stevens! They sacrificed Stevens and 3 others for a political advantage (of some weird sort?) ! I guess they needed to vilify a Christian! They are all a Godless Mob!

  39. What Gary North says needs to be taken with a large grain of salt.

  40. sherman4040 says:

    Raymond, you said everything that needed to be said to this so-called president ! All he really is, is president of the community organizers guild and the "wanna b president" side show! I too, am a believer in the Lord and I abhor the people who are leading this country of the cliff! God Bless You for your stance! I am sure I am on a "hit list" somewhere because of my comments on the White House Website! Keep up the pressure on this "wanna be"! It is going to take all of us "right thinking" Americans to make the difference in November!

  41. sherman4040 says:

    And I don't really care about what Gary North said! It is just more propaganda ! Putting the nose where it will do the most good, He thinks!

  42. We know you don't care, that's what trolls do.

  43. God love the Irish but they are drinkin' too much again.

  44. When you look at the two candidates and their philosophies, you see one, an American and one who is not. Are there really that many voters in this country that want the U.S.A. to no longer succeed and thus will vote for Obama?

  45. Mary Mohanan says:

    We love you Raymond !!! AMEN

  46. Thank you Mary.
    By the way, wife's name is Mary.

  47. Romney 311 electoral votes. Bank on it.