On the day before the attack on the American embassy in Libya, Obama’s odds of re-election on the Intrade betting website were at 57 — high. As news of the attack spread, the odds jumped to 65. Then they rose to 67.
American mainstram media have not published this photo of murderers dragging Ambassador Stephens’ body through the streets. That might not be good for Obama’s re-election campaign.
I searched Google for “Stephens’ body” and dragged through streets. I got lots of hits, but none from America’s mainstream media.
The mainstream media did cite Hillary Clinton’s explanation, as posted on the website of the U.S. State Department. “And when the attack came yesterday, Libyans stood and fought to defend our post. Some were wounded. Libyans carried Chris’ body to the hospital, and they helped rescue and lead other Americans to safety.” Americans were deeply moved.
Americans are manipulated and clueless.
Betting statistics have no explanations, but I think it is clear what is at work here. The President is seen as representing the nation to its enemies. An attack on the embassy is perceived, correctly, as an attack on the United States. The representative of the United States government is the President. The psychology is this: “Rally round the flag. The President is carrying the flag.”
The announcement by Bernanke of QE3 also had a lifting effect.
The attacks seem to be waning. The odds have begun to fall a little: about one percentage point. But they would have to fall 16 more percentage points, meaning 24%, to get into the 50-50 range. He has not been in this range since late in 2011.
How accurate was Intrade in 2008? Very accurate, and by the day of the election, almost perfect. It called his victory in the Electoral College within one vote out of 538 — uncanny.
We read: “There was only one point in mid-September when McCain was actually forecasted to win more electoral votes than Obama. Other than that, Obama enjoyed a sizeable lead for most of the election season. ” Obama’s odds jumped in late September.
To see what Obama’s odds are today, click the link.