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Soros: 3 Months to Doomsday. His Solution Looks Preposterous Politically.

Written by Gary North on June 4, 2012

George Soros, the muilti-billionaire  currency speculator, says that the New World Order will survive in Europe, but only at this price: the establishment of Germany as the arbiter of Europe’s national deficits. Germany will have to bail out the PIIGS and the banks that loaned to them.

He does not say where Germany will get the money.

He does not say how German-imposed austerity will be accepted by PIIGS voters.

In short, he does not show how doomsday will be avoided.

He began his article with this admission: “Ever since the Crash of 2008 there has been a widespread recognition, both among economists and the general public, that economic theory has failed. But there is no consensus on the causes and the extent of that failure.” He is wrong. Austrian economic theorists predicted the crash and explained it, before it happened.

Keynesians and Chicago School economists and supply-siders were indeed caught off guard.

He went on in a critique of academic economic theory. He is correct. It is modeled after physics, That has been the Austrians’ complaint ever since 1912: Mises’ Theory of Money and Credit. Soros repeats Mises.

I believe that the failure is more profound than generally recognized. It goes back to the foundations of economic theory. Economics tried to model itself on Newtonian physics. It sought to establish universally and timelessly valid laws governing reality. But economics is a social science and there is a fundamental difference between the natural and social sciences. Social phenomena have thinking participants who base their decisions on imperfect knowledge. That is what economic theory has tried to ignore. . . .

Social events, by contrast, have thinking participants who have a will of their own.  They are not detached observers but engaged decision makers whose decisions greatly influence the course of events. Therefore the events do not constitute an independent criterion by which participants can decide whether their views are valid. In the absence of an independent criterion people have to base their decisions not on knowledge but on an inherently biased and to greater or lesser extent distorted interpretation of reality. Their lack of perfect knowledge or fallibility introduces an element of indeterminacy into the course of events that is absent when the events relate to the behavior of inanimate objects. The resulting uncertainty hinders the social sciences in producing laws similar to Newton’s physics.

He has a theory of economics. It makes no sense. But this does:

I contend that the European Union itself is like a bubble. In the boom phase the EU was what the psychoanalyst David Tuckett calls a “fantastic object” — unreal but immensely attractive.

He loves the idea of the EU. But he sees that it has been a bubble, a fantasy: the triumph of good intentions over experience. “The EU was the embodiment of an open society — an association of nations founded on the principles of democracy, human rights, and rule of law in which no nation or nationality would have a dominant position.” Reality is now intruding.

Germany was a big promoter initially. He means Germany’s globalist politicians. “The process culminated with the Maastricht Treaty and the introduction of the euro.” Merkel has lost the faith.

It was followed by a period of stagnation which, after the crash of 2008, turned into a process of disintegration. The first step was taken by Germany when, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, Angela Merkel declared that the virtual guarantee extended to other financial institutions should come from each country acting separately, not by Europe acting jointly. It took financial markets more than a year to realize the implication of that declaration, showing that they are not perfect.

The Maastricht Treaty was fundamentally flawed, demonstrating the fallibility of the authorities. Its main weakness was well known to its architects: it established a monetary union without a political union. The architects believed however, that when the need arose the political will could be generated to take the necessary steps towards a political union.

The bankers were stupid, he says. They trusted the PIIGS.

It took some time for the financial markets to discover that government bonds which had been considered riskless are subject to speculative attack and may actually default; but when they did, risk premiums rose dramatically. This rendered commercial banks whose balance sheets were loaded with those bonds potentially insolvent. And that constituted the two main components of the problem confronting us today: a sovereign debt crisis and a banking crisis which are closely interlinked.

He blames “Germany.” But it was not “Germany.” It was the globalists who ran Germany. They have been the “center.”

. . . the creditors are in effect shifting the burden of adjustment on to the debtor countries and avoiding their own responsibility for the imbalances. Interestingly, the terms “center” and “periphery” have crept into usage almost unnoticed. Just as in the 1980’s all the blame and burden is falling on the “periphery” and the responsibility of the “center” has never been properly acknowledged.  Yet in the euro crisis the responsibility of the center is even greater than it was in 1982. The “center” is responsible for designing a flawed system, enacting flawed treaties, pursuing flawed policies and always doing too little too late. In the 1980’s Latin America suffered a lost decade; a similar fate now awaits Europe. That is the responsibility that Germany and the other creditor countries need to acknowledge. But there is no sign of this happening.

He thinks the eurozone is disintegrating. But it can be saved . . . by Germany. He calls on German voters to shoulder the burden. He says they have only 3 months.

The German public cannot understand why a policy of structural reforms and fiscal austerity that worked for Germany a decade ago will not work Europe today. Germany then could enjoy an export led recovery but the eurozone today is caught in a deflationary debt trap. The German public does not see any deflation at home; on the contrary, wages are rising and there are vacancies for skilled jobs which are eagerly snapped up by immigrants from other European countries. Reluctance to invest abroad and the influx of flight capital are fueling a real estate boom. Exports may be slowing but employment is still rising. In these circumstances it would require an extraordinary effort by the German government to convince the German public to embrace the extraordinary measures that would be necessary to reverse the current trend. And they have only a three months’ window in which to do it.

We need to do whatever we can to convince Germany to show leadership and preserve the European Union as the fantastic object that it used to be. The future of Europe depends on it.

Let us hope he is right: 3 months to the end of the stupid euro experiment, followed by the collapse of the European Union.

Let us also hope that German voters tell their elected representatives to tell the PIIGS’s politicians to take a hike, and also tell the stupid bankers the same thing.

This much it true: the Eurocrats are running out of time. This will be the summer of their discontent.

Continue Reading on www.georgesoros.com

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35 thoughts on “Soros: 3 Months to Doomsday. His Solution Looks Preposterous Politically.

  1. Countdown to the Next Megashock! How to Profit

    Analysts estimate that, even without any further decline in its banking crisis, Spain could need a bailout of up to €450 billion ($560 billion), virtually wiping out Europe’s available bailout funds in one fell swoop.

    And that’s not the worst-case scenario! In the midst of a banking panic and the resulting economic collapse, Spain could become a bottomless pit for which even $1 trillion would not suffice.

    June 6 (the day after tomorrow) — The European Central Bank (ECB) meets in Frankfurt: They’re supposedly to decide what to do with interest rates, but more importantly, to come up with a scheme that somehow averts an all-out run on European banks.

    Exactly how much money are European savers pulling out of their banks in the wake of the latest upheavals? We’ll find out on …

    June 11, precisely one week from today — That’s when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issues its first report on European bank deposits since the latest phase of the crisis began to heat up.

    So brace yourself! The IMF report could be a shocker, revealing massive withdrawals already under way … prompting even more bank runs … and making it virtually impossible for the ECB to stop the panic.

    June 17 — Greeks go back to the polls. If Greece’s anti-bailout leftist party wins, it sets off a rapid chain of events that culminate in the collapse of the euro zone.

    And even if the pro-bailout centrist party somehow prevails, the chances that Greece will fulfill the Draconian terms of the European bailout are slim to nil.

    When Does the Crisis Reach Critical Mass?

    It’s when the risk of still another, even more grandiose bailout is — or is perceived to be — far greater than the risk of the next big failure.

    It’s when the people who are asked to finance the bailouts throw up their arms in disgust and shout “Enough!”

    And it’s what’s beginning to happen again now in Europe. In Germany, the primary source of bailout funds, the public outcry against more rescue money for Greece or Spain is deafening. And throughout Europe, leaders are now talking far more seriously about letting Greece fail — much like U.S. authorities let Lehman fail four years ago.

    In the wake of the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy filing of September 15, 2008, credit markets froze up and banks virtually shut down all new lending.

    Borrowing costs went through the roof. For most borrowers, money wasn’t available at any price.

    The Dow lost nearly half its value in a matter of months.

    In sum, the next financial megashock could be larger, precipitating even bigger swings — and greater opportunities — in precious metals.

    When all is said and done, investors may look back at these months and recognize, after the fact, it was the last great buying opportunity for precious metals of a lifetime.

    Here’s what I recommend …

    First, be sure to wait for the right time before loading up on precious metals. Remember: Even after a Lehman-type event, gold could continue to suffer a short-term correction.

    Second, be sure to respond to the announcement as soon as you get it.

    Third, no matter what, invest prudently, keeping a substantial portion of your money in cash.

    by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. Monday, June 4, 2012 at 7:30am

    DOOM and GLOOM or REALITY???

    The EU’s Systemic Risk: Why This Time IS Different June 4, 2012
    http://gainspainscapital.com/

    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemplo

  2. gunner48 says:

    You S—–in me or What? I wouldnt let Germany run a Girl Scout troop! We didnt learn from WWI, and WWII, These people make the Commies look like Saints as far as extermination….And Heartlessness……New World Order my Ass!

  3. Even George Soros is scrambling to blame others for what he has led the Bilderburg types into. He's also scrabbling to lead Germans into bailing him out. Sorry George, it isn"t going to work and they are going to place the blame where it belongs, on you.

  4. Victor Barney says:

    Now you should know more about WHY Ireland was EXCLUDED from being protected in the last days of the "right" Anti-Christ(Marxist) over Israel by the seed of Joseph(England & America)! But then 6,000 from each sex from each tribe with Joseph's seed replacing the Irish, you SHOULD UNDERSTAND that that is NOT VERY MANY OF US KEPT ALIVE! I mean, we have double that figure in LeHigh Acres, Florida(just east of Fort Myers) alone! Again, the two-witnesses of Revelation, chapter 11 I predict will appear this coming September 16, 2012 so BE READY! WATCH and remember prophecy ONLY BECOMES PROPHECY AFTER it has been FOREFILLED! Just saying…because YHWH does nothing without FIRST WARNING HIS PEOPLE! Hopefully you already KNOW that HEBREW is the ONLY SET-APART SPIRITUAL LANGUAGE(ZEPH. 3:9, ACTS 26:14, 1 Cor. 4:6)! Again, just saying….

  5. Sgt. York says:

    Sorass may be a great money lifter but as far as telling the world people he is as good as O'Vomit. Never before in American history has a clown like Sorass told us how to live and do our money business. He and O'Vomit both need to get out.

  6. Soros is dying to tell us he is an Austrian when it comes to economic thinking – just like a criminal can’t wait to share the secrets of the best job he ever pulled. Throughout this speech, including the section Dr. North highlights, he is hinting at it. I believe he uses an Austrian framework in his investing – he just can't say so because his masters would not like someone so far inside to admit this.

  7. Georgie Sorass obviously has a vendetta against Germany . Why is it Germany's responsibility to bail out those countries that cannot manage their own financial situations . When the European Common Market was founded , weak financially unstable nations jumped on the band wagon as it was supposed to solve a lot of the financial woes many countries faced . Well obviously , it was a bandage that didn't help . And the people who made money on the gamble ( people like Soros ) now want a finanically competent to carry the weak ones so he can make more money .

    Soros has more money in his bank account's than half of the European countries have in their treasury's . Bailing out and carrying the weak countries will only hurt Germany's economy , which I am certain is feeling the crunch caused by others and further weaken the world economy . If he wants to help weak economies , well then he should open HIS coffers and donate . He is obviously the guy who is to benefit from it so why not . Georgie boy wants to dominate the world , he has his puppet in place here in America already (But only till Nov.)

    No If a weak link is going under in Europe , let it . Bailouts only help those that have way to much money already and want even more money . Basically , it just don't work . Exec's thake bailout funds and give themselve's a big bonus and squander the rest with the same failed financial practices

  8. I don't like lumping people into groups and making judgments. This leads, eventually to genocidal tendencies. I also don't get excited about anyone wanting to "run" anything much above their own household. So I wouldn't want the "Germans" running anything, but I also don't want the British, Americans, Russians, or Chinese running anything. We each have enough to do to run our own lives and try to raise healthy children. This is enough for one lifetime.

    If you insist on lumping people into groups and judging them this way, read up on the Germans – no one denies the crimes of Hitler and the Nazis. But other than this brief period in their history (one which would have been less destructive for the world had the US and Britain stayed out of the fight; for this read Hoover: Freedom Betrayed), they have contributed much that is wonderful for the world: in the arts, sciences, economics, philosophy, etc.

  9. recon77 says:

    and yet more reasons to vote Ron Paul and his ilk into power over here, the reasons for the r3VOLution are endless and accrue daily…

  10. recon77 says:

    LOL…indeed!

  11. recon77 says:

    ty for the humor respite victor, made my day…

  12. recon77 says:

    much but no cigars, don't forget that 100 yrs. of Haeckels scam in the German textbooks made a "hitler" inevitable… the great part is in America we have homeschooling and it on the increase…this breaks the back (of should) of the Darwin-myth/scam perpetuated in the govt. skrools… mosquito man…

  13. recon77 says:

    i meant (or should)…implying that destruction of the Darwinian myth should be a prime goal of the homeschoolers…

  14. recon77 says:

    you obviously don't know much about the Gulag(s)…

  15. George Soros moved to Germany they need you we DON"T need or want you.

  16. Soros appears to be blind to the matter of original sin. One of the difficulties with economic theory is that it is not a science, it is a philosophy. This is why degrees in economics are not MSc degrees they are PhD degrees. The human factor always banjaxes the theory and makes economic forecasting extremely unreliable. Jesus tells us that the love of money is the root of all evil. That is the human cause behind the misery which will shortly descend upon the world.

  17. Hmmm…PIIGS can't mange their national financial situations, so somehow that's Germany's fault, and Germany should bail out the PIIGS? George, did you ever take a logic course?

    Sad to say, but you all know that the US is going to end up bailing out EU. Just watch.

  18. Right on!

  19. […] Read More at teapartyeconomist.com.  By Gary North. […]

  20. Wait till Germany gets the position of Alpha Dog ! We'll all live to regret that .It'll be the Fourth and Last Reich.

  21. The PIIGS spent and borrowed to the maximum without asking Germany for its permission. Blaming Germany for the dire situation in which the PIIGS find themselves is like blaming the banks for debtors borrowing beyond their capacity. It is always nice to blame someone else for your problems. However, the PIIGS created their own problems and they must solve the problems they created.

  22. You must think the head was designed for hair cuts only. Go back to school for a better education in order to learn about the truth when it comes to world history.

  23. Who am I?

    I was born in one country, raised in another.

    My father was born in another country.

    I was not his only child. He fathered several children with numerous women.

    I became very close to my mother, as my father showed no interest in me.

    My mother died at an early age from cancer.

    Although my father deserted me and my mother raised me, I later wrote a book idolizing my father, not my mother.

    Later in life, questions arose over my real name.

    My birth records were sketchy. No one was able to produce a legitimate, reliable birth certificate.

    I grew up practicing one faith but converted to Christianity, as it was widely accepted in my new country, but I practiced non-traditional beliefs and didn't follow Christianity, except in the public eye under scrutiny.

    I worked and lived among lower-class people as a young adult, disguising myself as someone who really cared about them.

    That was before I decided it was time to get serious about my life and embarked on a new career.

    I wrote a book about my struggles growing up. It was clear to those who read my memoirs that I had difficulties accepting that my father abandoned me as a child.

    I became active in local politics in my 30's; then, with help behind the scenes, I literally burst onto the scene as a candidate for national office in my 40s.

    They said I had a golden tongue and could talk anyone into anything.

    I had a virtually non-existent resume, little work history, and no experience in leading a single organization.

    Yet I was a powerful speaker and citizens were drawn to me, as though I were a magnet and they were small roofing tacks.

    I drew incredibly large crowds during my public appearances. This bolstered my ego.

    At first, my political campaign focused on my country's foreign policy… I was very critical of my country in the last war, and seized every opportunity to bash my country.

    But what launched my rise to national prominence were my views on the country's economy.

    I pretended to have a really good plan on how we could do better, and every poor person would be fed and housed for free.

    I knew which group was responsible for getting us into this mess.

    It was the free market, banks and corporations.

    I decided to start making citizens hate them and, if they became envious of others who did well, the plan was clinched tight.

    I called mine "A People's Campaign".

    That sounded good to all people.

    I was the surprise candidate because I emerged from outside the traditional path of politics and was able to gain widespread popular support.

    I knew that, if I merely offered the people 'hope', together we could change our country and the world.

    So, I started to make my speeches sound like they were on behalf of the downtrodden, poor, ignorant to include "persecuted minorities".

    My true views were not widely known, and I kept them unknown, until after I became my nation's leader.

    I had to carefully guard reality, as anybody could have easily found out what I really believed, if they had simply read my writings and examined those people associated with. I'm glad they didn't.

    Then I became the most powerful man in the world.

    And then world learned the truth.

    Who am I?

    ADOLPH HITLER
    If you were thinking of SOMEONE ELSE,
    You should be scared, very scared!

  24. Robert Wood says:

    Amen!! ——Mark your calender—Oct, 7 2012——THE TOTAL CRASH!!!

  25. Amen!!!! you hit nail on the head VERY VERY SCARED!!!!!

  26. Read your HISTORY ON GEORGE SORES: —-WORLD WAR 11—-GERMANY

  27. […] law in which no nation or nationality would have a dominant position.” Reality is now intruding.READ MORE June 4th, 2012 | Tags: "Euro Crisis", Eruopean Union, EU, Germany, PIIGS | Category: Uncategorized […]

  28. to gerorge sore ass,you and all your power and money,will never take down,we the people,we are god fearing,constitution loving american citizens,and you jerkoff and all your evil scumbags,can hug my nuts,and kiss we the peoples ass.we the people know what your evil plans our,so soreass,try and stop we the people,and you can stop by and say hello to ron paul supportes anytime.we love company,and a good cup of tea.ok soreass,take gas,god bless ron paul,sheriff joe and cold case posse,chuck norris,and all american veterans/citizens.one nation under god

  29. Tionico says:

    interesting, but it also sounds a lot like the current rtesident of the expensive rental on Pennsylvania Avenue, alongside the Potomac river….. in reality, not much difference between them, except the current one hasn 't had opportunity to carry out all his plans. He's working on it, thorugh, "under the radar". What he doesnt' realise is that modern radar is a LOT more effective and sensitive than the radar of Hitler's time.

  30. Tionico says:

    The collapse of Europe will be a crushing blow to the one world lot, and I can't imagine it coming too soon. Once Europe implodes it will seriously damage the credibility of any such plans. I knew, back when the whole Euro thing came about, that to enact a common currency without a common political system would doom it to failure. I lived in Canada at the time, and was quite amused by all the hoopla over the "new thing". I can NOT imagine German citizens allowing their government to get off with a Greek bailout. CAN imagine delusional US voters to allow OUR government to do it, though…. and that WILL be the undoing of whatever financial solidity might yet be lingering at the time.

  31. Vagabundus says:

    It seems that he has given a nod to praxeology and the knowledge problem, even though his remedies are wrong. Like most poor physicians, he is chasing symptoms.

  32. not-a-crazy says:

    why does everyone here think Soros is so wrong? … his basic point is that the EMU is headed towards breakup without a political union and transfer payments to the periphery … we in the US of course have transfer payments from the wealthy states to the poor states, ask California or New York if they are not asked to subsidize Michigan and Alabama … also, as Andrew Jackson well knew when he killed the 2nd Bank of the United States, the flow of savings in this country is from every state into New York banks from which it is lent out … there is some local bank credit, but most of the savings flow into New York … and then the bankers in New York pay large tax bills which the federal govt redistributes to the states … what Soros is saying is that Europe, and really Germany, need to accept that situation, ie creditor-as-transferor-of-some-gains, or the EMU will be politically not feasible and break up … and maybe the EU with it, although he makes no argument on that point which I saw … I'm not sure how this makes him a Keynesian … saying that moves to political union, which would also be a transfer union, as "blocked" by the German creditor is just true as stated, not a Keynesian view at all … the Germans don't want to subsidize the periphery, nor even finance the periphery and take its credit risk any more without conditions, which means limited fiscal control of the periphery sovereigns … that's just a DIP loan to a distressed borrower from my view, albeit not nearly as enforceable in the context of sovereign nations … where in this is Soros a Keynesian? Aside from hawking his theory of reflexivity, for which he would give anything to win a Nobel Prize, I think Soros is basically correct that the EMU has to move together or break apart, muddle won't do anymore as a matter of logic given events … ironically that is exactly the type of conclusion an economist who believes is multiple-equilibria would offer (and not consistent with the self-fulfilling prophecy aspect of reflexivity which would take us to break-up straight away).

    Come on Gary North – step up and respond!

  33. mimi arrington says:

    3 mos. is Sept, but who's counting?