Mexico is no longer a Third World nation. Its increasing urban prosperity is luring rural Mexicans into cities in Mexico rather than the United States. This is permanent.
“I think the massive boom in Mexican immigration is over and I don’t think it will ever return to the numbers we saw in the 1990s and 2000s,” said Douglas Massey, a professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton University and co-director of the Mexican Migration Project, which has been gathering data on the subject for 30 years.
Meanwhile, twice as Mexicans are returning home than did a decade ago, according to a report from the Pew Hispanic Center. The sign that they are not coming back is that half of them took their families. This includes 100,000 children born here, who are dual citizens. The great Mexican immigration is over.
Nearly 1.4 million Mexicans moved from the United States to Mexico between 2005 and 2010, double the number who did so a decade earlier. The number of Mexicans who moved to the United States during that period fell to less than half of the 3 million who came between 1995 and 2000. . . .
According to the report, the Mexican-born population, which had been increasing since 1970, peaked at 12.6 million in 2007 and has dropped to 12 million since then.
Birth rates of educated women fall. Everywhere. This will reduce Mexican birth rates.
In 1960, a typical Mexican woman was expected to have more than seven children, but by 2009 that number had dropped to just over two — a decline that presages a sharp reduction in the number of young workers seeking to come to the United States.
This will have political implications. The Democrats will not be getting as many Latino votes as they had expected. Teddy Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson opened the borders with the 1965 immigration law. They did it deliberately, knowing the immigrants and their children would vote Democratic. They were right. But this change has limits. These limits will be smaller in 20 years than the Democrats had expected.
The U.S. economy is still in low growth mode. This has cut demand for uneducated laborers.