The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shows freight rates in Europe. When it falls, bad things happen.
Take a look at what has happened since last August. The prices were rising until November. Then they reversed. They have gone over a cliff.
The recession in Europe has begun. Germany has suffered three consecutive months of decline.
This index is a leading indicator, because it reflects the opinions of manufacturers. They have reduced their orders of raw materials.
The assumption of Establishment economists is that this recession will be confined to Europe. Yet Western Europe is the largest economy on earth.