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U.S. Stocks Will Fall by a Third, Says Bold Forecaster

Written by Gary North on December 28, 2011

Down, down, down: so says Todd Schoenberger of LandColt Trading. He is at odds with the majority of forecasters, who say the market will rise.

Reuters recently reported 2012 expectations showed an average anticipated return for the S&P 500 next year as a gain of about 7.5%, right smack in the middle of what you might call the cautiously optimistic camp.

That’s why this forecaster is unique. He is a true contrarian.

“We’re predicting the S&P 500 will be down 20% by mid-year, and by the end of the year, we’ll be down 35%,” Schoenberger says in the attached video. “Buyer beware.”

Why is he pessimistic?

“Here’s the thing, the debt issue is poison, not just to the economy and national security around the globe, but to the stock market,” he says. “Revenues are going to take a big hit next year.”

He’s also convinced that the U.S. will slide in to recession in 2012, pointing out that since 1948, anytime GDP has slipped below 2% the U.S. economy has always ended up in a recession. The number right now is at 1.6%.

Citigroup has published a forecast that projects 6 quarters of recession in Europe, beginning in 2012. I think this is a reasonable forecast. This wilkl hurt U.S. firms with large-scale operations in Europe. “Guess what’s happening in Europe? A recession will have a big impact on a stock like McDonald’s.”

Instead, he’s positioning himself defensively in stocks “that mimic the economy” such as Public Storage (PSA). “People are losing their homes but won’t sell the family dining room set so they stick all their junk in a storage facility,” he explains.

So-called dollar store discounters like Family Dollar (FDO) and Dollar General (DG) are also seen as timely beneficiaries. “This is a frugal world we live in,” he says.

He thinks debt counts. He thinks we are not going to solve this problem in 2012.

Continue Reading on finance.yahoo.com

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3 thoughts on “U.S. Stocks Will Fall by a Third, Says Bold Forecaster

  1. Indict Bernanke for printing money out of thin air and putting the debt on the backs on your children and grandchildren while
    loaning money to "Investment Banks" that are "to big to fail" at 0% and then having the government borrow1/3rd of the same money back at 3% They take 1/3 of their "to bug to fail" bailout money and buy up stocks, contribute 1/3 back to the Obama reelection campaign. When that Ponsi scheme ends the market will drop more than 1/2 to 6,000 DJIA. They will try to place the blame on Europe and the media will go right along with it rather than identify the true theives. Then they will argue that capitalism has failed and that Bigger Government is the answer. Bigger government is the problem not the solution. This is in line with planning a crisis which the Democrats use as their justification for existence. Never let a good crisis go to waste.

  2. Luke 10:18And he said unto them, I beheld Satan as lightning fall from heaven.
    In ancient Hebrew the word for lightning is barack, the word for heaven or the
    heights is bama and to connect the words either an “a” or an “o” is used.

    2 Thessalonians 2:3 (King James Version)
    3Let no man deceive you by any means: for that day shall not come, except there
    come a falling away first, and that man of sin be revealed, the son of perdition;

    Political Correctness a term first seen in Mao’s Little Red Book, a communist engendered abomination that is instituting censorship little by little.

    “If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter.”- George Washington

    Carl Marx, once wrote that, the goal of the Communists was to quote,. “enter into men’s minds and cast God down from his throne.”

    Matthew 12:31Wherefore I say unto you, All manner of sin and blasphemy shall be forgiven unto men: but the blasphemy against the Holy Ghost shall not be forgiven unto men.

     

    In ancient Babylon their economy was based on usury.
    “If you lend money to one of my people among you who is needy, do not be like a moneylender; charge him no interest. Exodus 22:25
    Hath given forth upon usury, and hath taken increase: shall he then live? he shall not live: he hath done all these abominations; he shall surely die; his blood shall be upon him. Ezekiel 18:13
    Usury is unlawful; expressly prohibited by GOD!
     Article 1 Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution clearly states that only the Congress can print and coin money! 

    The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was slipped thru congress during the Christmas break with the majority of it’s members absent. 

    The Federal Reserve is self serving and privately owned in violation to the Constitution, charging interest on illegally printed money. Money printed from nothing!
    In America On June 4, 1963, a virtually unknown Presidential decree, Executive Order 11110, was signed with the authority to basically strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the United States Federal Government at interest. With the stroke of a pen, President Kennedy declared that the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank would soon be out of business. Five months later A UNITED STATES PRESIDENT, PRESIDENT JOHN F. KENNEDY was MURDERED BY COMMUNIST!
    “If you lend money to one of my people among you who is needy, do not be like a moneylender; charge him no interest. Exodus 22:25
    Hath given forth upon usury, and hath taken increase: shall he then live? he shall not live: he hath done all these abominations; he shall surely die; his blood shall be upon him. Ezekiel 18:13
    Usury is unlawful; expressly prohibited by GOD!
     
     
    In ancient Babylon their priest sacrificed babies to their gods baal, and molech.  
    In America the communist under their socialist programs have sacrificed over 50 million American babies to their god satan!
    Leviticus 20:2-5
    2Again, thou shalt say to the children of Israel , Whosoever he be of the children of Israel , or of the strangers that sojourn in Israel , that giveth any of his seed unto Molech; he shall surely be put to death: the people of the land shall stone him with stones.
    3And I will set my face against that man, and will cut him off from among his people; because he hath given of his seed unto Molech, to defile my sanctuary, and to profane my holy name.
    4And if the people of the land do any ways hide their eyes from the man, when he giveth of his seed unto Molech, and kill him not:
    5Then I will set my face against that man, and against his family, and will cut him off, and all that go a whoring after him, to commit whoredom with Molech, from among their people.
     
    Luke 22:35-36 Then Jesus asked them, “When I sent you without purse, bag or sandals, did you lack anything?” “Nothing,” they answered. 36 He said to them, “But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don’t have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one.
     
     
    Jeremiah 50:16Cut off the sower from Babylon, and him that handleth the SICKLE in the time of harvest: for fear of the oppressing sword they shall turn every one to his people, and they shall flee every one to his own land.
    Jeremiah 50:23How is the HAMMER OF THE WHOLE EARTH CUT ASUNDER AND BROKEN! how is Babylon become a desolation among the nations!
    BABYLON = the HAMMER and SICKLE!
     
     
    Jeremiah 50:14 “ Put yourselves in array against Babylon all around, All you who bend the bow; Shoot at her, spare no arrows, For she has sinned against the LORD.

    All nations compassed me about: but in the name of the LORD will I destroy them. Psalm 118:10

     

    “The thing that separates the American Christian from every other person on earth is the fact that he would rather die on his feet, than live on his knees!”. George Washington

    “NO KING BUT KING JESUS!”
            

     

  3. He may be right but whats to stop the Fed from QEIII and fomenting another "rally".???