In 2002, about 60% of the world’s oil came from non-OPEC sources. Today, it’s about 57%. Problem: Russia now supplies 25% of this non-OPEC oil.
Today, Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil “have essentially abandoned the effort to meaningfully expand their oil reserves. Instead, they are now shifting course in favor of a strong, natural gas emphasis.”
This leaves Russia as the main non-OPEC supplier. It is likely that Russia will continue to increase its percentage.
The result is that Russia in the past decade has accounted for nearly all of the supply growth in crude oil, among Non-OPEC producers. Indeed, without Russia, Non-OPEC supply would be in steep decline. Instead, it’s merely flat.
I assume that Russia will still sell its oil. It wants the foreign currency. Oil is the main asset that it sells. But non-OPEC sources would be supplying only 44% of the world’s oil, rather than 57%, if Russia were not supplying oil. Conclusion:
Under the surface of Non-OPEC supply, therefore, is not a swing in power towards the West but rather a more pronounced swing back towards the Middle East, and Russia.
So, what will the U.S. government do about this? Nothing that changes anything.
Will it allow nuclear power? No.
Then what is going to happen? The price of oil in dollars will rise.